USD/CAD slips near 1.3650 as Oil prices gain on Middle East tensions
- USD/CAD struggles as the CAD appreciates due to stronger Oil prices.
- Crude Oil prices rise on Middle East tensions, with Saudi airstrikes and Iran’s war rhetoric raising supply disruption risks.
- The US Dollar weakens as expectations grow for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2026.
USD/CAD depreciates for the second successive session, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains subdued near the five-month low of 1.3642, reached on December 26, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from stronger Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains ground after registering 2.5% losses in the previous session, trading around $57.20 at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices rise amid persistent Middle East tensions, as Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and Iran’s declaration of a “full-scale war” against the United States (US), Europe, and Israel heighten supply disruption concerns.
The USD/CAD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground due to the ongoing likelihood of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Traders will likely observe the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December Meeting Minutes due on Tuesday, which may shed light on internal policy debates shaping the Fed’s outlook for 2026.
The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the December meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed delivered a cumulative 75 bps of rate cuts in 2025 amid a cooling labor market and still-elevated inflation.
The CME FedWatch tool shows an 81.7% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 77.9% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 18.3% from 22.1% a week ago.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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