USD/CHF lifts off lows after US-Swiss tariff agreement

• USD/CHF rebounds as US Dollar steadies and the US-Switzerland trade deal lifts sentiment.
• US-Switzerland trade deal includes tariff reduction to 15% from 39%, Swiss government confirms.
• US data uncertainty grows as Labor Secretary says October CPI may not be released.

USD/CHF stages a modest rebound on Friday after slipping to its lowest level since October 17 earlier in the European session. The pair found support as traders reacted to headlines that the United States and Switzerland have reached a new trade deal, helping stabilize sentiment.

At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7931, snapping a seven-day losing streak as a slightly firmer US Dollar (USD) helps limit the downside. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is staging a modest rebound from two-week lows, trading around 99.37, up nearly 0.20% on the day.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC on Friday that Washington has “essentially reached a deal with Switzerland.” Under the agreement, the United States will lower tariffs on Swiss exports from around 39% to 15%. The Swiss government confirmed the deal in a post on X, adding that further details will be announced later in the day.

Greer also noted that the agreement includes plans for roughly $200 billion in Swiss investment in the United States, saying Switzerland will “send a lot of manufacturing here to the United States.” He added that more details, which he said have “really been in the works since April,” will be published later on the White House website.

In the United States, investors welcomed the reopening of the government, but overall sentiment remains fragile as markets wait for delayed economic data to be released. Uncertainty is growing over which reports will actually be published.

US Labor Secretary Chavez-Deremer said on Friday that the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to fully collect October CPI data and may not be able to release the report. She added that the September jobs report had been collected but not yet processed, noting that officials are hopeful it can be released next week.

On the monetary policy front, a wave of cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials this week has tempered near-term rate-cut expectations. Policymakers continue to stress that inflation remains the primary concern, even as signs of a deteriorating labor market emerge. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 49% probability to a December rate cut, down sharply from 94% a month ago.