EUR/USD finds some footing as markets shift focus to the Fed
- The Euro pares some losses amid a brighter market mood and returns above 1.1600.
- The US Dollar retreats across the board after Fed Chair Powell hinted at further rate cuts on Tuesday.
- EUR/USD is at the neckline of a Double Bottom pattern, at 1.1630.
EUR/USD is bouncing up on Wednesday, with price action returning to the 1.1625 area at the time of writing, from two-month lows at 1.1542 earlier in the week. Dovish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday boosted market sentiment and sent fears about global trade to the back seat, at least for now.
Powell highlighted the deterioration of the US labor market rather than inflationary risks, suggesting that the central bank is ready to cut interest rates again in October. He also announced that the Fed is nearing a point where it will stop reducing its bond holdings, the so-called "Quantitative Tightening" programme.
Meanwhile, the trade standoff between the US and China continues escalating. US President Donald Trump has threatened to end some of the cooking oil businesses with China in retaliation for Beijing's refusal to buy US soybeans. This comes after Tuesday's decision to raise taxes on each other's cargo vessels, although the impact on the market has moderated, as investors remain confident that both countries will finally reach an agreement.
In Wednesday's economic calendar, the Eurozone Industrial Production and the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index will be the main data points. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos is also scheduled to speak at two different events during the day. In the US session, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will take the stage.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.31% | -0.51% | -0.07% | -0.50% | 0.04% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.13% | -0.39% | 0.04% | -0.34% | 0.11% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.31% | 0.13% | -0.26% | 0.21% | -0.20% | 0.24% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.51% | 0.39% | 0.26% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.38% | 0.40% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.41% | -0.43% | 0.04% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.50% | 0.34% | 0.20% | -0.00% | 0.43% | 0.44% | 0.33% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.24% | -0.38% | -0.04% | -0.44% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | 0.06% | -0.13% | -0.40% | 0.08% | -0.33% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Euro bounces up as market sentiment brightens
- The dovish comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell boosted risk appetite on Tuesday and halted the Greenback's rally. Investors shifted their focus from the US-China escalating tensions to the prospects of lower interest rates by the Fed, and risk appetite returned to the market, boosting demand for equities and weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar.
- Powell stated that employment is more concerning than inflation at the moment, strengthening the case for further interest rate cuts in the coming months, and affirmed that the lack of data amid the government shutdown has not clouded the economic outlook, at least for now.
- The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that futures markets are practically fully pricing a 25-basis-point interest rate cut after the October 28-29 monetary policy meeting, while chances of another such cut in December have increased to 94.5% from below 80% last week.
- In Europe, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu suspended the controversial pension reform until at least after the 2027 presidential elections. This decision is expected to give the cabinet some leeway to survive a no-confidence vote due later this week, which has given some support to the Euro, although the issue of approving a budget remains open.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD's double bottom at 1.1542 hints at further recovery
EUR/USD bears failed to breach support at 1.1542 on their second attempt, highlighting a potential double bottom, a figure that often anticipates a trend shift. The pair is showing an improving momentum, with the Relative Strength Index popping up above the key 50 level.
Bulls are now testing the neckline of the mentioned double bottom at Monday's high of 1.1630. Further up, the top of the descending channel will meet the price in the area of 1.1675. The double bottom's measured target is right below the October 6 high, at 1.1730.
To the downside, the intraday low of 1.1600 has been holding downside attempts and closing the path towards the key 1.1542 level (October 9, 14 lows). A confirmation below here would put bears back in control and increase pressure to the August 5 low, at 1.1530, and the base of the descending channel, in the area of 1.1515.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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