USD/CHF falls to near 0.7950, awaits updates on US government shutdown risks
- USD/CHF loses ground as the Greenback extends its losses due to US government shutdown risks.
- The US August inflation report increased the likelihood of the Fed delivering a rate cut in October.
- Traders expect the SNB to keep rates to stay at zero through next year amid low domestic inflation.
USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.7960 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground amid market caution, driven by shutdown risks of the United States (US) government.
US President Donald Trump is set to meet congressional leaders on Monday to discuss government funding. The shutdown could begin on October 1 in case of no deal, which will also coincide with new tariffs on trucks, pharmaceuticals, and more. The standoff could also delay the September payrolls report and other key data, per Reuters.
The US Dollar (USD) loses ground after the US August inflation report boosted the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely deliver another interest rate cut in October. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 88% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 65% possibility of another reduction in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in August, as expected. The precious reading was a 2.6% increase. Meanwhile, the core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 2.9% YoY during the same period, also matching expectations.
Last week, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) held its policy rate at 0%, pausing after six cuts since March 2024. Economists largely see the easing cycle as over, expecting rates to stay at zero through next year amid low domestic inflation and risks from slowing global growth and trade tensions.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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