Why BigBear.ai Stock Skyrocketed 63.2% Last Month, and Has Kept Surging in July

Key Points

• Bullish momentum for the broader market and excitement surrounding defense artificial intelligence (AI) technologies powered huge gains for BigBear.ai stock in June.

• BigBear.ai also announced new partnerships and deployments for its biometric-identification systems at major airports.

• BigBear.ai stock has continued to move higher in July's trading, and one investment firm sees the stock reaching $9 per share.

• 10 stocks we like better than BigBear.ai ›

BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) enjoyed a huge rally across June's trading as investors became increasingly bullish on growth-dependent tech plays. The company's share price rose 63.2% in the month amid a gain of 5% for the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and a gain of 6.6% for the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

BigBear.ai stock surged in June as macroeconomic indicators aligned to support a bullish rally for the market and investors poured into defense-focused artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. The company's share price also got a big boost from positive analyst coverage.

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Bullish conditions aligned for BigBear.ai stock last month

Investors bid up growth stocks last month, as comments from key Federal Reserve officials increasingly pointed to the possibility that the central bank will cut interest rates in July. Economic data along some key fronts suggested the Fed may be gearing up to deliver more rate cuts than previously anticipated this year, and some lessening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also helped support a rally for the broader market that added to gains for BigBear.ai stock.

There were also some business-specific developments that helped support gains in the software specialist's valuation last month. The company announced new partnerships with Easy Lease PJSC and Vigilix Technology to accelerate the development and deployment of AI-based technologies, and a partnership with machine-vision specialist Analogic for threat detection at airports. BigBear.ai also announced that biometric identification stations from its Pangiam division had been deployed at major international airports.

Why has BigBear.ai stock kept rallying in July?

Despite some volatility, BigBear.ai stock has continued to see strong gains in July. As of this writing, the company's share price has risen 15.5% in the month and has benefited from positive analyst coverage and ongoing excitement surrounding defense AI opportunities.

In new coverage published July 1, H.C. Wainwright maintained a buy rating on BigBear.ai and raised its one-year price target on the stock from $6 to $9 per share. The investment firm's analysts expect that winning new customers and landing expanded deals with clients already using its services will pave the way for the stock's rally to continue. As of this writing, hitting H.C. Wainwright's target of $9 per share would mean additional stock price gains of roughly 15%.

Following recent gains, BigBear.ai stock is now up roughly 73% across 2025's trading -- but it's also still down 21% from its peak across the stretch. While the company's valuation has been surging and business performance is expected to pick up in this year's second half, speculative excitement has played a significant role in powering the run-up for the stock. BigBear.ai still has big upside potential if the business effectively capitalizes on rising demand for AI-powered defense software, but the company also still has a lot of proving to do.

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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.