Warren Buffett Sends Wall Street a Grim $127 Billion Warning: History Says the Stock Market Will Do This in 2025.

Source The Motley Fool

Warren Buffett is considered one of the greatest investors in American history. Under his leadership, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) shares have returned approximately 5,500,000% since the mid-1960s, compounding at 20% annually. Comparatively, the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has returned about 10.4% annually during the same period.

Much of that success can be attributed to prudent acquisitions and stock purchases made by Buffett, though his fellow investment managers Ted Weschler and Todd Combs have certainly contributed. Importantly, their recent capital allocation decisions send a grim warning to Wall Street. Berkshire sold $133 billion in stock during the first three quarters of 2024, while purchasing only $6 billion in stock.

Start Your Mornings Smarter! Wake up with Breakfast news in your inbox every market day. Sign Up For Free »

That means the company was a net seller of stocks to the tune of $127 billion through the first nine months of last year. Berkshire has never sold stocks so aggressively. But the warning is particularly ominous because the company also had a record $325 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet when the third quarter ended. In other words, Buffett and his fellow investment managers certainly had the means to make big purchases, but still chose not to.

Read on to learn more.

A downward-trending red arrow overlaid atop a $100 bill.

Image source: Getty Images.

History says the S&P 500 will deliver a below-average return in 2025

Since 2010, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks -- meaning the value of the stocks that it sold exceeded the value of stocks that it purchased -- during seven years (excluding 2024). The chart below lists those years, and it shows how the S&P 500 performed in the subsequent year.

Years When Berkshire Was a Net Seller of Stocks

S&P 500's Return During the Next Year

2010

0%

2012

30%

2014

(1%)

2016

19%

2020

27%

2021

(19%)

2023

23%

Average

11%

Data source: YCharts. Chart by Author.

As shown above, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 11% during the 12-month period following years in which Berkshire was a net seller of stocks. Comparatively, the index has returned 13% annually since 2010.

Here is the big picture: The S&P 500 has typically generated below-average returns (by 2 percentage points) during the 12-month period following years in which Berkshire was a net seller of stocks. That means Warren Buffett has generally leaned away from stocks ahead of weaker years. In that context, Berkshire selling a historic amount of stock during the first nine months of 2024 hints at a below-average return in 2025.

Warren Buffett's warning aligns with another stock market alarm

Warren Buffett's historic $127 billion warning to Wall Street happens to align with another stock market alarm. Specifically, the S&P 500 currently trades at a historically expensive valuation. The index achieved a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of 37.9 in December 2024, which is a substantial premium to 20-year average of 27.

In fact, since the S&P 500 was created in March 1957 (815 months ago), there have been only 52 months in which the index had a monthly CAPE ratio above 35. Put differently, the S&P 500 has been less expensive than it is today 94% of the time during the last seven decades.

Unfortunately, monthly CAPE ratios above 35 have generally correlated with negative returns during the next one year and three years, as shown in the chart below.

Time Period

S&P 500's Average Return

1 Year

(1%)

3 Years

(8%)

Data source: YCharts. Chart by Author.

As shown above, when the S&P 500's monthly CAPE ratio has exceeded 35, the index has declined by an average of 1% during the next year and it has declined by an average of 8% during the next three years.

Here is the big picture: Berkshire was a net seller of stocks through the first three quarters of 2024, and the S&P 500 currently trades at a historically expensive valuation. Both signals suggest the stock market will deliver a below-average return in 2025, and the latter signals hints at the possibility of a negative return.

For that reason, investors should be cautious in the current market environment. That means paying close attention to valuations when buying stocks. Additionally, now is a good time to build an above-average cash position. Doing so will make it easier to capitalize on the next drawdown.

Should you invest $1,000 in S&P 500 Index right now?

Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $874,051!*

Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.

Learn more »

*Stock Advisor returns as of January 21, 2025

Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Ethereum Price at Risk of Extended Decline as Bears Regain ControlEthereum price started a downside correction below the $1,850 zone. ETH is now consolidating and might drop further below the $1,785 support zone.
Author  NewsBTC
May 06, Tue
Ethereum price started a downside correction below the $1,850 zone. ETH is now consolidating and might drop further below the $1,785 support zone.
placeholder
Solana (SOL) Faces Continued Downside Risk—More Losses LikelySolana started a fresh decline from the $155 zone. SOL price is now consolidating near $145 and might extend losses below the $142 support.
Author  NewsBTC
May 06, Tue
Solana started a fresh decline from the $155 zone. SOL price is now consolidating near $145 and might extend losses below the $142 support.
placeholder
XRP Price Dips Further: Key Support Levels In JeopardyXRP price started a downside correction below the $2.20 zone. The price is now declining and might extend losses toward the $2.020 level. XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.20 zone.
Author  NewsBTC
May 06, Tue
XRP price started a downside correction below the $2.20 zone. The price is now declining and might extend losses toward the $2.020 level. XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.20 zone.
placeholder
Analysts Highlight 4 Reasons Why ETH Price Could Rebound Strongly in MayEthereum (ETH) has declined for five consecutive months. However, it enters May with rising optimism.
Author  Beincrypto
Yesterday 01: 34
Ethereum (ETH) has declined for five consecutive months. However, it enters May with rising optimism.
placeholder
Ethereum Price Regains Traction—Can Bulls Break Through the Barrier?Ethereum price started a downside correction and tested the $1,750 zone. ETH is now rising and attempting a move above the $1,850 resistance.
Author  NewsBTC
Yesterday 03: 31
Ethereum price started a downside correction and tested the $1,750 zone. ETH is now rising and attempting a move above the $1,850 resistance.
goTop
quote