Why TJX Stock Popped Today

Key Points

• TJX beat forecasts for sales and earnings this morning and raised guidance through the end of the year.

• TJX's forecast is now ahead of analyst forecasts.

• TJX stock costs more than 30 times earnings -- earnings growing at only single-digit rates.

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TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), owner of retail brands including TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, jumped 6.6% through 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday after beating analyst forecasts for fiscal Q2 2026 earnings.

Heading into the report, analysts forecast TJX would earn $1.01 per share on less than $14.2 billion in sales, but TJX reported $1.10 per share on sales of $14.4 billion.

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TJX Q2 earnings

TJX grew same-store sales 4%. Factoring in sales from newer stores, total sales growth reached 7%. Earnings growth was twice as good as sales -- up 15% year over year.

The company accelerated both sales and earnings growth between Q1 and Q2. H1 sales so far are up only 6%, and earnings 7%.

CEO Ernie Herrman pronounced himself "extremely pleased" with the numbers, noting sales, profit margins, and earnings are all growing "above our plan," leading management to raise guidance.

Is TJX stock a buy?

Not all the news is good. While Herrman says, "The third quarter is off to a strong start," TJX is still only guiding for 2% to 3% same-store sales growth in Q3, and earnings will be only about $1.18 per share, up 3.5% year over year and below analysts' forecast for a $1.22 quarterly profit.

On the plus side, TJX says earnings will grow 6% or 7% through the end of this fiscal year, to $4.52 to $4.57 per share, helped by better-than-expected profit margins. That's more than the $4.51 per share Wall Street forecast, and as much as an $0.18 improvement over previous guidance.

Still, a value investor can wonder: Is 3% sales growth, or even 7% profit growth, enough to justify TJX's rich 31-times-earnings valuation? No. It is not.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends TJX Companies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.