Bitcoin Volatility Hits Bull Cycle Low – Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Breakout

Bitcoin has remained in a tight consolidation range below its all-time high of $112,000 since late May, frustrating both bulls and bears. Despite multiple failed breakout attempts, BTC has held key demand zones above critical support levels, suggesting strong underlying strength. As price compresses, volatility is declining — a classic sign that a major move could be imminent.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared fresh data indicating that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a textbook Bollinger Bands squeeze. The spread between the upper and lower bands has narrowed to just 7.7%, marking one of the tightest ranges seen throughout the current bull cycle. Historically, such compressions have preceded explosive moves in either direction. Given Bitcoin’s position above support and within a broader uptrend, the probability favors an upside breakout.

This technical setup, combined with macroeconomic tailwinds and renewed investor interest, could serve as the catalyst for BTC to finally push into price discovery. If confirmed, it would not only open the door for a run beyond $112K but also reset expectations across the crypto market. In the coming days, all eyes will be on how Bitcoin responds to this mounting pressure.

Bitcoin Consolidates As Bollinger Bands Squeeze Signals Next Move

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below its all-time high of $112,000, frustrating bulls and bears alike. Despite ongoing resistance at the top, bears have failed to drive the price below $105,000, confirming strong demand at key support levels. As the price tightens, the broader macroeconomic picture adds complexity to the outlook.

The US Congress recently passed President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” economic bill just before the July 4 deadline. The package includes tax cuts and aggressive public spending, which are expected to fuel inflation in the coming quarters. Coupled with optimistic job data, these developments are shaping investor sentiment across traditional and crypto markets.

On the technical side, Axel Adler highlighted a classic Bollinger Bands squeeze currently forming on Bitcoin’s chart. The range between the upper and lower bands has compressed to just 7.7%—one of the tightest readings seen throughout the ongoing bull cycle. This kind of volatility drop suggests energy accumulation, with the price preparing for a significant move.

Historical patterns offer insight: of six major Bollinger Band squeezes this cycle, four resulted in immediate upside moves, and two triggered brief corrections before rallies resumed. With this precedent, Adler believes the current setup most likely foreshadows a bullish breakout, although minor consolidation beforehand is still possible.

BTC Price Holds Above Key Moving Averages

The 12-hour Bitcoin chart shows BTC trading at $108,892, struggling to break above the key resistance zone around $109,300. This level has acted as a rejection point multiple times since early June, confirming its strength. Despite the recent pullback, price remains above the 50 SMA ($106,442) and 100 SMA ($106,671), indicating bullish momentum is still in play.

Importantly, bulls have defended the $106,000–$107,000 support range several times, preventing deeper corrections and keeping BTC within a tight consolidation range. Volume has declined in recent sessions, suggesting the market is waiting for a catalyst to break out of this range. If Bitcoin closes decisively above $109,300 on strong volume, a run toward the $112,000 all-time high becomes increasingly likely.

On the downside, a break below the 100 SMA could expose BTC to the next major support around $103,600, a key level that has held since mid-May. The 200 SMA (currently at $99,093) remains a long-term support zone that hasn’t been tested in months.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView