EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1750 ahead of Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- EUR/USD depreciates as the US Dollar advances following US-Japan trade deal.
- Trump took the opportunity to criticize Fed Powell, stating that he will be out in eight months.
- The ECB is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
EUR/USD pulls back from two-week high of 1.1761 reached on Tuesday, trading around 1.1740 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground. United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan that includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. As part of the agreement, Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets to key American products.
President Trump said during a meeting with the Philippines President Bongbong Marcos on Tuesday that “I think we will get a trade deal; we're close to a trade deal.” I don't mind if the Philippines gets along with China, he added.
However, the upside of the Greenback could be restrained due to ongoing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. Trump took the opportunity to renew his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying, “Powell’s going to be out soon anyway; he’s got to be out in eight months.” Trump argued that the economy remains strong and claimed the Fed is keeping interest rates too high, insisting, “We should be at 1%.”
Traders await European Commission’s (EC) Consumer Confidence due later in the day, with expectations of declining by 15 points in July. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to deliver its interest rate decision on Thursday, with no change in rates expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last month that the easing cycle is coming to an end after eight quarter-point cuts that brought the deposit rate to 2.0%.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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