NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hangs near two-week low after RBNZ, seems vulnerable below 0.6000

• NZD/USD struggles to capitalize on the post-RBNZ spike during the Asian session.

• Reduced Fed rate cut bets and trade jitters benefit the USD and weigh on the Kiwi.

• The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for additional losses.

The NZD/USD pair fades an intraday spike to the 0.6015 area that followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) widely expected decision to hold rates steady and retests a two-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade below the 0.6000 psychological mark and seem vulnerable to slide further amid a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains well supported by expectations that higher US tariffs would underpin inflation and allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stick to its wait-and-see approach. Adding to this, concerns about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies weigh on investors' sentiment. This further benefits the safe-haven buck and acts as a headwind for the risk-sensitive Kiwi.

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair's overnight breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside and back the case for an extension of the recent corrective slide from the 0.6120 area, or the highest level since October 2024 touched earlier this month.

However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-July rally, around the 0.5970 area, before positioning for deeper losses. The NZD/USD pair might then accelerate the fall to the 0.5935 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the 0.5900 round figure and June monthly swing low, around the 0.5880 region.

On the flip side, attempted recovery might now confront some resistance near the 0.6025 area (50% retracement level), above which the NZD/USD pair could climb to the 0.6060 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level. The subsequent move up could allow spot prices to reclaim the 0.6100 mark and retest the year-to-date peak, around the 0.6120 zone. A sustained move beyond the latter would be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and pave the way for additional gains.

NZD/USD 4-hour chart