Bitcoin Heating Up? NVT Golden Cross Hints At Potential Local Top

NewsBTC
Updated
Mitrade
coverImg
Source: DepositPhotos

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 7% over the last two weeks, showing signs of strength despite expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July 30 meeting. However, some indicators suggest that the market may be entering overheating territory.

Bitcoin Market Entering Overheating Territory?

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkesmeci, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Golden Cross is on the rise. Importantly, this upward movement is beginning to signal signs of market overheating.

For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is a technical indicator that compares short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio to identify potential market tops or bottoms. When the short-term NVT crosses above the long-term average, it often signals that Bitcoin is becoming overvalued and may face a short-term correction.

Notably, this indicator has successfully predicted three local tops so far in 2025. The first occurred on February 5, when the NVT Golden Cross hit 2.68 while BTC traded at $97,600, followed by a 23.65% correction.

nvt golden cross

On March 24, the indicator peaked at 2.87 with BTC around $87,500, leading to a subsequent correction of 16.06%. Most recently – on June 16 – it rose to 2.21 with BTC trading at $106,800, which was followed by a 9.87% price dip.

Currently, the NVT Golden Cross stands at 1.98. Although it hasn’t crossed the key 2.2 threshold yet, its upward trajectory suggests that market overheating could be brewing. The CryptoQuant analyst explained:

Breaking its previous high is moderately bullish and shows momentum is building. If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top. But don’t rush to exit – historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days.

In conclusion, burakkesmeci noted that while crossing the 2.2 level might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. That said, the opinion on BTC’s short-term price trajectory is largely divided.

Analysts Split Over BTC Price Action

The NVT Golden Cross suggests that BTC may still have room to rally before hitting a potential local top. However, some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin reaches new highs.

For instance, noted crypto analyst Chistian Chifoi described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000.

Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000. At press time, BTC trades at $108,204, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours.

bitcoin

* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only.  This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.

goTop
quote
Do you find this article useful?
Related Articles
placeholder
On-chain data showed that whales are aggressively accumulating more Bitcoin and EthereumOn-chain data showed that whales are aggressively accumulating more Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Author  Cryptopolitan
7 hours ago
On-chain data showed that whales are aggressively accumulating more Bitcoin and Ethereum.
placeholder
Stablecoin Google Searches Hit All-Time High as GENIUS Act Fuels $272B Market SurgeGlobal interest in stablecoins has hit unprecedented levels, with Google searches for the term “stablecoins” reaching an all-time high in July 2025.
Author  NewsBTC
13 hours ago
Global interest in stablecoins has hit unprecedented levels, with Google searches for the term “stablecoins” reaching an all-time high in July 2025.
placeholder
Meme Coins Price Prediction: DOGE, SHIB, PEPE at risk as bullish momentum, Open Interest declinesThe meme coins are holding crucial support levels amid declining bullish momentum and Open Interest (OI), pointing to escalating downside risk. 
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 09: 43
The meme coins are holding crucial support levels amid declining bullish momentum and Open Interest (OI), pointing to escalating downside risk. 
placeholder
Bitcoin’s Rally Might Be Running on Fumes, Analyst Warns of August Turning PointBitcoin’s price is beginning to recover after a brief period of stagnation, trading at $118,945 at the time of writing.
Author  NewsBTC
Yesterday 07: 23
Bitcoin’s price is beginning to recover after a brief period of stagnation, trading at $118,945 at the time of writing.
placeholder
ETH Whale Activity Spikes as SharpLink Gaming Stakes $300 Million WorthOn-chain data reveals that SharpLink Gaming purchased over 77,000 ETH last week, equivalent to approximately $296 million.
Author  Beincrypto
Jul 28, Mon
On-chain data reveals that SharpLink Gaming purchased over 77,000 ETH last week, equivalent to approximately $296 million.