Sandisk Stock Forecast: SNDK Breaks Triangle Support as Kioxia's NAND Warning Overshadows a Record Quarter

TradingKey - Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) plunged 13.47% to $1,150.89 on Friday, October 30, a day after reporting record results that beat its own guidance and announcing an 8-for-1 stock split. Including Thursday's decline before the report, the stock lost about 18% over two sessions, erasing roughly $39 billion in market value, according to TIKR.

The trigger came from Kioxia, Sandisk's manufacturing partner in Japan, which warned that the surge in NAND flash prices is fading fast. Memory stocks trade on how quickly prices are rising, not just on price levels, so a slowdown in price growth was enough to outweigh a strong quarter. Overnight trading showed a small recovery to $1,180.04.

A Record Quarter

In its fiscal first quarter, which ended October 2, Sandisk's revenue rose 378% from a year earlier and 23% from the prior quarter to $11.03 billion, above its $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion guide. Adjusted EPS was $49.51, ahead of its $44 to $46 guide, and the adjusted gross margin, the share of revenue left after production costs, reached 85.1%.

Data center revenue jumped 61% from the prior quarter to $4.8 billion. Adjusted free cash flow, the cash left after capital spending, was $5.7 billion, and Sandisk bought back about 3.2 million shares for $5.0 billion in the quarter.

Guidance and the 8-for-1 Split

For fiscal Q2, Sandisk guided revenue to $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion and adjusted EPS to $55 to $57 before the split, with an adjusted gross margin of 84.5% to 85.5%. The split gives holders seven extra shares for each one they own. The new shares will be issued after the close on November 19, and split-adjusted trading begins on November 20. A split does not change the company's value, but at Friday's close it would bring the share price to about $144.

Why the Stock Fell: Kioxia's Warning

Kioxia said NAND selling prices rose in the mid-20% range in the September quarter, down from about 70% the quarter before, and it expects prices to be roughly flat next quarter. Its operating profit guide of about ¥2 trillion also came in below the ¥2.35 trillion consensus. Kioxia shares fell 7.14% and Micron dropped 5.30% on Friday.

Kioxia did not say prices are falling, only that increases are slowing sharply. Memory stocks often peak when price growth peaks, not when prices do, and that is the pattern investors are now worried about.

Sandisk's Own Numbers Show the Shift

Pricing is already doing less of the work. TIKR estimates that higher prices drove about two-thirds of Sandisk's 51% revenue jump in the prior quarter but only about 40% of this quarter's 23% gain. CFO Luis Visoso guided to only "modest" further price increases, and consumer revenue fell 29% from the prior quarter to $397 million. Rising memory prices are a cost for buyers too, the same squeeze Intel blamed for weak PC demand last week.

The Case That the Drop Is Overdone

Long-term agreements cover about half of fiscal 2027 output and two-thirds of fiscal 2028, according to TIKR, which cushions Sandisk if spot prices flatten. Sandisk also bought back shares at an average of about $1,560 in the quarter, about 36% above Friday's close. Kioxia still expects 2027 demand to exceed supply, though it and Sandisk plan more than ¥5 trillion of capacity spending.

In my view, the market is pricing peak growth rather than a demand collapse, but margins near 85% look closer to a ceiling than a floor.

Sandisk Technical Analysis: Break Below $1,003.45 Could Open $777.98

The selloff shows clearly on the daily chart. Friday's drop broke SNDK below the large triangle, a narrowing price pattern, that had contained price since June, a clear warning sign for buyers. The stock also trades well below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, moving averages that give more weight to recent prices, at $1,495.93 and $1,472.28, so sellers are firmly in control.

Sandisk Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, has dropped to about 33, close to 30, the oversold line, and the MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, is deep in negative territory.

On the downside, $1,003.45 is the next key support, near the July low. A break below it could open $777.98. For buyers, a recovery above $1,419.89 would be needed to ease the bearish pressure. These levels are pre-split, so they will be one-eighth as large once split-adjusted trading begins on November 20.

I'm bearish while SNDK stays below $1,419.89, with $1,003.45 as the next target.

Key Levels

• Last close: $1,150.89, down 13.47% on Friday, October 30 (overnight: $1,180.04)
• Support: $1,003.45, $777.98
• Resistance: $1,419.89, $1,472.28, $1,495.93
• RSI: 32.73, close to the 30 oversold line
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $1,419.89
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $1,003.45

FAQs

Why did Sandisk stock fall after earnings?

Sandisk fell 13.47% on Friday after Kioxia warned that NAND price growth slowed to the mid-20% range from about 70% and would be roughly flat next quarter, which outweighed Sandisk's record quarter, strong guidance and 8-for-1 stock split.

What is the Sandisk stock forecast now?

The bias is bearish below $1,419.89 on the daily chart. A break below $1,003.45 could open $777.98, while a recovery above $1,419.89 would ease the pressure.

Bottom Line

Sandisk's business is still growing fast, but the market is now focused on how quickly NAND price gains are fading. The level that matters is $1,003.45, near the July low. I expect a test of that level while SNDK stays below $1,419.89, and only a move back above it would turn the picture around.