Intel Stock Price Forecast: Confirms Continued Participation in Terafab, Can INTC Hold $100?

TradingKey - On October 9 ET, Intel (INTC) closed down 2.22% at $104.70, with an intraday range of $104.00–$108.38.

As of that day's close, INTC had fallen over 12% cumulatively over the past five trading days. During this period, the market focused on TSMC's potential involvement in the Terafab project and the impact of reports regarding OpenAI's revenue outlook on the AI chip sector.

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Musk previously stated that he was discussing potential Terafab cooperation with TSMC (TSM), but the two sides have not yet announced a formal agreement. The news sparked market concerns over Intel's role in the project.

Subsequently, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated that the company would continue to participate in Terafab. Musk said his project team would still build and operate the fab, while proposing that TSMC might sublease part of the space in the future, though no formal arrangements have been made.

Intel's specific responsibilities, investment scale, technology licensing fees, and revenue recognition methods have not yet been disclosed.

Terafab Partnership Details Undisclosed, Revenue Contribution Remains Uncertain

Intel has announced its participation in the Terafab project, providing chip design, manufacturing technology, and advanced packaging support. Musk also stated that Terafab plans to adopt Intel's 14A process once its internal capacity matures.

However, the parties have not yet disclosed the technology licensing terms, fee arrangements, whether Intel will participate in production line integration, or the timing of related revenue recognition.

Since Terafab plans to build its own production capacity, the project may not directly generate wafer manufacturing revenue for Intel Foundry. Intel's potential returns could include process licensing, engineering support, or advanced packaging revenue, with the actual contribution depending on commercial terms and mass production timelines.

Third-Quarter Earnings Focus on Server Growth and Foundry Losses

Intel's second-quarter revenue grew 25% year-over-year to $16.1 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 and non-GAAP gross margin rising to 41.8%. Among its segments, Client and Physical AI revenue increased 13% to $8.9 billion, while Data Center and AI revenue surged 59% to $6.3 billion, representing a faster growth rate for the latter.

The company expects third-quarter revenue to be between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion. Based on the midpoint of the revenue guidance, non-GAAP EPS is projected at $0.38, with a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 42%. Key factors to watch for third-quarter performance include server CPU demand, 18A mass production progress, external foundry customers, and changes in gross margin.

Foundry losses remain one of the main factors affecting profitability improvement. In the second quarter, revenue for the Intel Foundry segment was $5.765 billion, which includes intersegment transactions, with an operating loss of approximately $2.089 billion.

The company stated that 18A-P has entered risk production, and certain Panther Lake processors using High NA EUV technology have entered high-volume manufacturing. Going forward, key focus areas will be whether external customer revenue can expand and whether foundry losses can continue to narrow.

INTC Technical Analysis: $100-$103 Becomes Key Short-Term Support

As of October 9, INTC closed at $104.70, below its 20-day simple moving average of $113.83, but remaining above its 50-day moving average of $103.08 and 200-day moving average of $83.03. The 14-day RSI stands at around 43.44, indicating weak short-term momentum, though it has not yet entered the traditional oversold territory below 30.

[Source: TradingView]

Calculated from the low of $32.89 on November 21, 2025, to the high of $142.35 on June 30, 2026, the 0.236, 0.382, and 0.500 Fibonacci retracement levels are approximately $116.52, $100.54, and $87.62, respectively.

On the downside, $100–$103 serves as the primary support zone, which includes the 50-day moving average and the 0.382 retracement level. If the daily candle closes below $100, the $87–$88 range could be watched in the medium term; if weakness persists, the 200-day moving average near $83 will form the next support.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies near $108. If it reclaims this level, the next resistance zone is at $113–$117, which includes the 20-day moving average and the 0.236 retracement level. A breakout above $116.52 could bring the previous high of $142.35 back into view in the medium term, though resistance along the way will still need to be assessed based on emerging price structures.

$100–$103 is currently a key support zone for INTC. In the medium term, attention should be paid to third-quarter earnings, foundry losses, and whether Terafab's commercial terms and revenue contribution can be further clarified.