TSMC Falls Below $470 as Good News Materializes: How Far Will This Pullback Go?

TradingKey - Selling Pressure Triggered as Good News Is Fully Priced In: TSMC Shares Fall Below $470 Mark; Will It Continue to Slide?

On October 8, Eastern Time, TSMC's ADR (TSM) fell by about 1.4%, losing the $470 mark to stand at $465.51. Today, TSMC announced its consolidated revenue for September at approximately NT$511.857 billion (about $16.034 billion), bringing third-quarter revenue to approximately NT$1.494 trillion, setting a new single-quarter revenue record while exceeding analysts' average expectation of NT$1.46 trillion.

Although TSMC's total revenue for the third quarter of 2026 reached another all-time high, September's monthly revenue showed a year-over-year increase but a month-over-month decline of 0.6%, triggering a wait-and-see sentiment among some short-term capital. In addition, TSMC is expected to hold its third-quarter investor conference in mid-October. Given the substantial recent gains in the stock price, some market capital chose to lock in profits ahead of the revenue release and investor conference.

On October 5, TSMC's stock price surged toward the $490 mark, touching an intraday record high of $487.47, and is currently experiencing a typical high-level pullback as good news is fully priced in. Based on a comprehensive evaluation of technicals and market positioning, TSMC's first line of defense lies at $460, and the second line of defense is at $430–$440, corresponding to the Fibonacci 0.236 and 0.382 retracement levels, respectively. The former serves as an initial support zone, while the latter is a golden ratio retracement level overlaid with a dense trading volume cluster, providing stronger support.

TSMC stock price chart, Source: TradingView

Therefore, short-term traders should strictly avoid blindly chasing highs or buying the dip; it is recommended to wait for TSMC's stock price to show signs of stabilizing near $450, such as a low-volume doji or a daily candlestick with a lower shadow, before considering positioning.