Elon Musk's SpaceX Stock Just Closed Above Its $135 IPO Price for the First Time in Weeks. Is the Rebound a Buy Signal?

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, have experienced a volatile journey since debuting as the biggest IPO in Wall Street history. When initial excitement faded for the company's June 12 public debut, the stock fell into a tailspin.

The share price changed course after Elon Musk's company reported second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4. By Aug. 12, SpaceX stock was up nearly 40% from the low of $104.83 reached the day before earnings. As of Aug. 17, it's back above the official IPO pricing of $135.

The recovery is a promising sign, but does it mean now is the time to buy? To answer that question, here's a deeper dive into the company Musk controls with over 80% of the voting power.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House.

SpaceX stock's sudden rebound

SpaceX stock fell post-IPO due to various factors, including expiration of an initial lockup period for insiders and early investors, which made more shares available for trading than the roughly 639 million sold in the IPO. Another was the company's enormous capital expenditures. Its 2025 capex was $20.7 billion, nearly double the 2024 total.

However, many positives in SpaceX's Q2 earnings report propelled the stock upward. Revenue rose a whopping 92% year over year to $7.8 billion. Its net loss shrank to $541 million, down substantially from $1 billion in the prior year.

Although the company is known for its space-based offerings, Q2 revenue from its artificial intelligence business soared to $2.6 billion, up from $737 million in 2025. This spectacular sales growth suggests SpaceX's massive capital investments in AI infrastructure could end up paying off.

One of these investments is its Terafab project, a joint venture with Elon Musk's other company, Tesla, to create a massive semiconductor manufacturing facility. Terafab will produce AI chips for both businesses. Musk called the initiative "the most epic chip-building exercise in history."

SpaceX's AI opportunity

SpaceX's AI pursuit is important for investors to understand because management believes artificial intelligence is a far bigger opportunity than its rocket business. The company estimates AI's total addressable market (TAM) at an astounding $26.5 trillion compared to $370 billion for its space launch operations.

Consequently, investing in shares means buying into Musk's vision that artificial intelligence is central to SpaceX's future and a belief in the company's ability to capture a meaningful share of the colossal TAM at stake. It seems many investors are convinced.

That said, SpaceX stock is expensive, as demonstrated by a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 90. For comparison, consider that shares of AI semiconductor chip leader Nvidia sport a more reasonable sales multiple of about 22.

With only one quarter of reported earnings as a public company, it's not known whether SpaceX's Q2 performance signals the start of a sustainable trend. Moreover, additional shares are scheduled to unlock in the coming months, including about 700 million in both September and October. This flood of supply could push the share price down.

Given these considerations, the prudent approach is to wait for SpaceX stock to drop before deciding to buy.

Robert Izquierdo has positions in Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.