Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft: One of These Stocks Looks Like It Has the Least Upside Over the Next 12 Months, but There's a Catch

The heavy spending required to stay competitive in the artificial intelligence (AI) race hasn't done any favors for the stock prices of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) in 2026. Of the four hyperscalers, only Amazon is outperforming the S&P 500 year to date.

That said, analysts have more favorable outlooks for those stocks over the next 12 months. Microsoft, however, appears to have the least upside potential of the group, but there's a caveat to those forecasts.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The stocks with the most and least upside potential

Among these four tech giants, Meta has the most favorable outlook, according to analysts. Among the 70 analysts covering the company tracked by CNN, the median one-year price target is $750. That would amount to a 26.6% gain from Meta's Aug. 7 closing price of $592.10.

For Alphabet, the median price target for Class C shares is $426.50, 20.6% higher than the Aug. 7 closing price of $353.47, while Amazon shares are expected to climb to $325, an 18.4% gain from their Aug. 7 closing price of $274.48.

That leaves Microsoft with the lowest expected gains of the pack. Its median price target of $555 is only 11% higher than its Aug. 7 closing price of $499.99.

With that price target, however, comes nuance: The outlook isn't as tepid as it appears on the surface.

The rapid rise of Microsoft stock

On July 29, Microsoft reported strong results for its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, which ended June 30. And for the full fiscal year, its cloud infrastructure division, Azure, surpassed $100 billion in revenue for the first time. That growth is a sign that its capex spending is producing results, and investors applauded the news.

Fueled by those quarterly results, the stock's price surged; from July 23 to Aug. 7, Microsoft shares climbed by 31%. That rapid rise skewed the median price target to look worse than it is, as analysts expect the stock gains they predict to be more spaced out over a 12-month period rather than arriving in just a few weeks of trading.

With that rally behind the stock, analysts may start revising their targets, which means Microsoft's current median price target of $555 isn't anything to worry about. Investors are now more bullish on the stock, which is what helped push Microsoft shares closer to that target in the first place.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.