SpaceX Stock and the Nasdaq-100: What History Tells Us About Potential Returns After July 7
Key Points
SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7.
Being added to the Nasdaq-100 is expected to increase buying activity.
Over the last two years, the majority of companies added to index traded at a loss early on.
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Even though it's only been public since June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), or SpaceX, has already traded in a wide range in less than a month, from a high of $225.64 to a low of $147.11.
With its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, however, history shows that, on average, companies can expect their stock prices to move in a certain direction. This is what history suggests about whether the next move in SpaceX's stock price is higher or lower.
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The short-term results of Nasdaq-100 inclusion
When a stock is included in the Nasdaq-100, it creates buying activity, as investment vehicles like exchange-traded funds that track that index must own it. But history says that being added to the index is not an immediate, game-changing moment for the company.
According to Barron's, over the last two years, of the 21 companies added to the Nasdaq-100, only six had their stock prices climb in the first week they were added. The average loss for a stock a week after inclusion in the index has been 3.8%.
Looking out a bit further, the good news for shareholders is that the data looks more promising. Stocks averaged a gain of 3.6% one month after being in the Nasdaq-100 and climbed 6.3% after three months.
The bigger picture for SpaceX
SpaceX shareholders will appreciate any type of stock price gain. But as history has shown, inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 won't be a meaningful needle mover right out of the gate.
Instead, it's important to focus on the long-term potential and risks of building out artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in space. SpaceX is going after what it believes is a $26.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM) in AI. If it executes on capturing as much of that TAM as possible, that is what can lead to the gains current shareholders are hoping for.
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Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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