SpaceX IPO Hype May Be Setting Investors Up for Disappointment
Key Points
SpaceX's valuation hype was massive.
The company is making bold projections, but the financials don't back it up.
Shares look overvalued for anyone looking to buy today.
- 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›
The hype around Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) and its initial public offering (IPO) has been out of this world. It is officially the largest public debut in history, in terms of valuation and capital raised.
It seems like everyone wants to own a piece of SpaceX. Yet the contrarian investor knows that this is a flashing warning sign to run for the hills and avoid buying SpaceX stock. Here's why the IPO hype may be setting up investors who hold this highly unprofitable space economy and artificial intelligence (AI) stock for disappointment over the next few years.
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Unprofitable growth and massive loss risks
SpaceX has massive potential if you take its projected addressable markets of trillions of dollars at face value. Elon Musk himself said that SpaceX may generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030.
This is a far-off goal relative to the 2025 revenue level of $18.7 billion. On this revenue, SpaceX posted a $5 billion net loss, mainly due to its aggressive investments in AI data centers and in developing its Starship rocket. To reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, it will need to deliver north of 100% revenue growth each of the next five years.
2026 growth looks promising, with $26 billion in contracts SpaceX has secured from Alphabet and Anthropic for AI data center computing. However, this is not coming from a position of strength, as these data centers for its xAI division were intended for internal use. Now it is reselling this power, likely at a loss, to its competitors.
Why SpaceX stock will disappoint investors
Overall, SpaceX stock is poised to disappoint investors due to its massive initial valuation. One could argue that SpaceX is a good business due to its dominance in rocket flight, the highly profitable Starlink internet service, and its call option in AI.
However, the stock is getting a huge premium right now. It is now trading at a market cap of $2 trillion, or a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of more than 100, based on 2025 revenue. Plus, SpaceX is posting massive losses that are only growing in 2026, with free cash flow of negative $9 billion in the first quarter alone. If this continues, it is going to run out of the $85 billion it raised from the IPO in around two years.
Even if SpaceX succeeds in building its Starlink internet, Starship, and orbital data center businesses, the stock is already pricing in all of this and more. If the company falters, this massive cash burn will hurt shareholders. In either scenario, SpaceX's stock is bound to disappoint investors who buy today.
Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?
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Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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