I'm Interested in Buying SpaceX Stock, Just Not At the IPO. Here's Why I Plan to Wait.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is about to complete the biggest IPO in history. The space technology and AI company plans to raise $75 billion in its IPO, more than triple the $22 billion Alibaba raised in 2014. It would value the Elon Musk-led start-up at nearly $1.8 trillion.

I'm interested in investing in SpaceX stock. However, I don't plan to participate in the IPO or buy shares immediately after it goes public. Here's why I plan to wait.

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An enticing combination

SpaceX is a very intriguing company. It combines a very profitable satellite internet company (Starlink) with a fast-growing rocket business, and a leading-edge AI platform (xAI). Meanwhile, it offers more optionality than almost any company, with potential future growth drivers that include space-based data centers and Mars colonization. The company sees a $23 trillion market opportunity for its AI offerings alone.

The Elon Musk-led start-up is growing fast. Its revenue surged 33% last year to $18.7 billion and rose 15% year over year in the first three months of 2026. While the company as a whole is losing money ($4.9 billion net loss last year), that's largely due to heavy investments tied to xAI, which posted a $6.4 billion loss.

A sky-high valuation

SpaceX has immense growth potential, which investors are pricing into the stock. At its IPO valuation of nearly $1.8 trillion, SpaceX trades at nearly 100 times sales. That's an extremely rich valuation, even for a fast-growing company. For perspective, another Musk-led company, Tesla, went public at about 15 times sales (and currently trades at about 14.5 times sales).

Despite that sky-high valuation, demand for SpaceX stock is high heading into its IPO. Reuters reported that investors have put in orders for about four times more shares than the company plans to sell at its IPO. Those who don't get an IPO allocation will likely try to buy shares as soon as they hit the open market, which will likely send the stock above the company's planned IPO price of $135 a share.

Why waiting could pay off

IPO stocks tend to pop when they debut due to strong initial investor demand. It wouldn't surprise me to see SpaceX stock soar when it starts trading, given robust demand for shares.

However, most of the largest IPOs in recent years have underperformed the market following their debut. According to data from FactSet, only nine of the 36 companies that have gone public on a U.S. exchange with a market capitalization of more than $15 billion have outperformed the S&P 500 since their IPO. That's due to many factors, including growth failing to live up to the initial hype and the increase in the number of available shares as lockout periods expire.

Given SpaceX's lofty valuation, I think there's a high probability it will trade below its IPO price in the next year. That's why I plan to wait before buying shares. I think my patience will pay off and eventually enable me to buy shares of this very interesting company at a much more reasonable valuation.

Matt DiLallo has positions in FactSet Research Systems and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends FactSet Research Systems and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.