Anthropic Pre-IPO Valuation of 965 Billion Surpasses OpenAI for the First Time. Both Valuation and Annualized Revenue Overtaken, What Are OpenAI's IPO Odds?

TradingKey - According to Bloomberg, Anthropic's current funding round has reached $65 billion, bringing its valuation to $965 billion and officially surpassing OpenAI. The latter completed its most recent financing round in March this year at a valuation of $852 billion. This marks Anthropic's official emergence as the world's most valuable AI startup.

Both companies are preparing for anticipated IPOs later this year. According to media reports, OpenAI may have already filed confidentially for an IPO, targeting a listing as early as September. Anthropic could also go public as early as this autumn.

However, since SpaceX already went public in June with a latest target valuation of $1.8 trillion—which will drain liquidity from capital markets—the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI will face immense pressure. Under these circumstances, whoever reaches the secondary market first will secure the market's priority choice.

Currently, Anthropic has not only outperformed OpenAI in valuation, but its annualized revenue has also reached $47 billion and is expected to surpass $50 billion by the end of next month, compared to OpenAI's annualized revenue of approximately $25 billion in February. In this context, what are OpenAI's chances of winning?

Anthropic IPO Favored by Wall Street and Silicon Valley; Fundraising Exceeds Expectations

According to reports, Anthropic's current funding round was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, with participation from D.E. Shaw & Co., Blackstone, and DST Global. Each lead investor contributed more than $2 billion.

Tech giants also participated. Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) previously announced a long-term investment commitment of up to $40 billion in Anthropic, and its multi-billion dollar investment in this round is part of that plan. Amazon (AMZN) invested $5 billion, which is also a continuation of its previous commitment. The 'Big Three' memory giants—Micron (MU) , Samsung, and SK Hynix all participated in this round. The final size of Anthropic's funding far exceeded its original $30 billion target.

Claude Code Fuels Revenue Growth; First-Time Profitability Expected This Quarter

The company expects to record $10.9 billion in revenue for the second quarter, representing a quarter-over-quarter doubling of growth, and is poised to record its first profit in Q2 with operating profit projected as high as $559 million; it expects to achieve break-even by 2028, signaling the maturation of its business model.

The latest report from SemiAnalysis, a semiconductor and AI infrastructure research firm, shows that Anthropic's current annualized revenue has grown nearly fivefold from approximately $9 billion at the end of last year, meaning the company added about $96 million in ARR daily in just a few months. Venture capitalists who reviewed the company's financial data stated that such growth is unprecedented, even though the firm has studied no fewer than 200 software company IPOs.

The company's core growth engine recently has been Claude Code, a programming AI agent product launched last May; as of February this year, the business's annualized revenue reached $2.5 billion and continues to grow.

Since January 2026, weekly active users of Claude Code have doubled, and enterprise usage contributed more than half of the revenue. The SemiAnalysis report shows that 8 of the Fortune 10 are already enterprise customers of Claude, and the number of customers with annual spending exceeding $100,000 and $1 million has grown significantly over the past year. In terms of market share, U.S. corporate data tracked by Ramp Economics Lab shows that Anthropic's share of combined enterprise spending on OpenAI and Anthropic has grown from 10% in early 2025 to over 65% by February 2026, implying a massive migration of users from OpenAI to Anthropic.

However, while Anthropic's revenue and valuation have soared, it has not sacrificed its control over gross margins. The gross margin of Anthropic's inference infrastructure has jumped from 38% a year ago to over 70%, indicating that the company's growth model is very healthy.

Overtaken in Both Valuation and Revenue: Can OpenAI Still Win?

In addition to weak financial data and a clear shift in market sentiment toward OpenAI's competitors, internal friction within its leadership is also a factor to consider. According to Business Insider, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar is concerned about the timing of an IPO, having expressed reservations in recent months regarding plans for OpenAI to go public by the end of this year. Reports from The Information suggest that Friar has been excluded from key meetings and has indicated she does not believe the company will be ready for an IPO by 2026, highlighting internal disagreements and power struggles among executives over the public listing.

While the AI spending arms race has become the industry's default approach, the market is increasingly focused on the return on investment. OpenAI recently reported staggering losses, with an adjusted operating margin of -122% in the first quarter—meaning the company loses $1.22 for every $1 in revenue. This will likely cause the market to question its massive capital expenditures, particularly when compared with Anthropic. While Anthropic maintains rapid growth momentum, OpenAI's ChatGPT has stalled, failing to meet its previously set target of 1 billion weekly active users. In light of this contrast, the secondary market may view Anthropic as a more mature AI investment target and pivot away from OpenAI.