Joby Aviation Could Launch Flying Taxis in 2026 -- Here's What Investors Should Watch

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) wants to turn a futuristic idea into a real business. Its electric aircraft can take off like a helicopter and fly like a plane, carrying passengers across cities in minutes. For years, that vision felt distant. But now it's getting close to reality.

Joby is targeting its first paying passengers in 2026, starting in markets like Dubai before expanding to the United States. If the company succeeds, it could become one of the first to launch a commercial flying taxi service.

That sounds exciting. But investors should focus less on headlines and more on execution. Here are three things that matter most in the next 12 to 18 months.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Certification must turn into approval

Before Joby can fly passengers, it needs approval from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This process ensures the eVTOL is safe and reliable. So far, Joby has already made strong progress. It has progressed through multiple stages of certification, almost completing stage four of a five-stage process, putting it among the industry leaders.

But progress does not equal approval. The FAA has never certified this type of aircraft, so there are still many uncertainties that may affect the outcome. Even small technical issues or new safety requirements could delay the timeline.

For investors, the most important thing to watch in the coming months is this: Are updates moving from "we are making progress" to "we have received approval"? Once approval becomes clear, then a major risk disappears. But approval alone won't guarantee a successful business. And that brings us to the next important aspect.

2. Will early flights prove real demand for air taxis?

Joby has been preparing to begin commercial flights in 2026. Its acquisition of Blade Air Mobility's passenger business gives it access to terminals and existing customers. Partnerships with companies like Uber Technologies could make the service easier to access and book.

The company also plans to launch first in places like Dubai, where governments support new technology and can move faster on approvals. That gives Joby a controlled environment to test real operations.

Let's assume everything goes to plan. The bigger question comes next: Will people actually use flying taxis? After all, this is a completely new technology that hasn't undergone extensive testing. In other words, there is no proven business model yet.

Thus, investors should look beyond the headlines and focus on key signals in the coming quarters, which include growing first-time and repeat users, reasonable pricing power, and operational reliability -- including safety and one-time performances.

3. Can Joby scale production to plan?

Building one aircraft is hard, but building many is even harder. If Joby's initial offering garners enough consumer interest, the subsequent challenge will be scaling production effectively and efficiently to meet demand.

This stage often creates problems, since building prototypes and entering production are two distinct processes. If the company fails to manage this on time and on budget, it may lead to a chain of problems down the road.

To this end, Joby has signed an agreement to acquire a manufacturing facility in the Dayton, Ohio, area, aiming to double manufacturing capacity from two to four aircraft per month in 2027. Still, there is no guarantee everything will go exactly to plan.

For investors, the question is straightforward: Can Joby build aircraft consistently, on time, and at a reasonable cost? Without scalable production, even strong demand won't translate into a sustainable business.

What does it mean for investors?

Joby Aviation is entering its most important phase yet. The company has already shown that its aircraft can fly. Now it must prove that it can operate as a business.

The opportunity is large. Flying taxis could change how people move in crowded cities, and early leaders may benefit over the long term. But the risks are just as real. Certification is still ongoing. Demand is still unproven. And scaling production will test execution.

For investors, 2026 is a year to closely monitor for tangible progress in these three areas. If Joby can deliver, it could evolve into a real business. Until then, Joby remains a high-potential, high-risk stock that's not for the faint-hearted.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.