Is Gold More Likely to Hit $4,000 or $6,000 in 2026?
Key Points
The price of gold has been rising recently, but it's still well below the highs it reached earlier this year.
When economic conditions are troubling, investors typically flock to safe-haven assets such as gold.
The SPDR Gold Shares fund has performed well over the past year due to the rising price of gold.
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The price of gold has been fluctuating between $4,500 and $5,500 for much of 2026. The volatility and uncertainty around the economy, the war in Iran, and broader geopolitical issues appear to have all been weighing on its value. On Monday, it was trading around $4,700.
An effective way to invest in gold, without having to physically own it, is to invest in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT: GLD). The exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracks the price of gold, and it has enabled investors to benefit from its rise in value. Over the past year, the ETF has risen by 46%.
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But the big question today is, which direction is gold more likely to go in -- up or down? Is it more likely to reach $4,000 or $6,000 this year?
Image source: Getty Images.
Will gold rally again?
Gold is considered a safe-haven asset as it can be a go-to investment in times of trouble. If nothing else, it can provide investors with some stability. This year, however, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF has been volatile due to rapidly changing gold prices, ranging from a low of $396 in the early part of the year to a high of nearly $496 in late January. Currently, it sits at around $435.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to what happens with the economy. Economic conditions are worsening, more layoffs are taking place, and geopolitical concerns continue to surface and may impact many industries. Even if a recession doesn't happen this year, it may still be around the corner. Investors, meanwhile, will likely move as they see those warning signs, which is why I believe there's a stronger case for gold rising as the year goes on rather than falling. Hitting $6,000 looks much more likely than the metal falling to $4,000.
Should you add the Gold Shares ETF to your portfolio?
The Gold Shares ETF is a compelling option today, especially as a way to potentially reduce market risk. It has been volatile in the early part of the year, but it's clear there's been an appetite for gold amid uncertainty, and that the precious metal isn't falling out of style with retail investors anytime soon.
Investors have been loading up on gold this year amid growing economic concerns, and I believe that'll remain a theme as the year progresses. If you want to diversify your portfolio, the Gold Shares ETF may be one of the better investments to add right now.
Should you buy stock in SPDR Gold Shares right now?
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David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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