Tesla's Big Rig Could Be a Big Success and Still Disappoint

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. While Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) first foray into trucks was its polarizing, entirely unsuccessful Cybertruck, its second attempt is likely to be something very different. Tesla's electric Semi, the Class 8 truck, aims to disrupt an entirely new market for the company and, hopefully, be much more successful than the Cybertruck's effort to disrupt Detroit truckmakers.

Here's the problem: Expectations might be too high. In fact, even if Tesla's Semi is a big success, it might still disappoint investors in the near term.

Image source: Tesla.

Tesla's Semi is coming to a road near you

Long-term Tesla investors can brush aside the Cybertruck's shortcomings and focus on the next frontier, as its Semi truck has an opportunity to do what Tesla already did for the passenger-vehicle battery-electric industry: create a real, compelling electric option. Tesla's electric Semi has what it takes to be a game-changer for the industry by rivaling combustion competitors on cost, maintenance, and performance.

Investors might be frustrated with the Semi's slow start, considering it was presented in 2017, with production promised two years later. After delays, the electric vehicle (EV) maker is only now accelerating Semi production, with a 2026 goal of between 5,000 and 15,000 units.

Here's the semi-bad news: Tesla's Semi begins pricing at roughly $300,000, which is almost double the price of a comparable diesel truck. That's a sizable distance to close between fuel savings, maintenance, and uptime. Here's the good news: Pilot testing appears to be going well.

"This truck is a really, really good performer," said Paul Gioupis, founder and CEO of Zeem Solutions, an electric fleet infrastructure and truck-leasing company, according to Automotive News. "We've been getting over 400 miles on every single one of the runs that these fleets have been doing."

Although Tesla's semi-truck is off to a slow start, considering when it was presented, the automaker has been busy solving problems. One big knock against Tesla's Semi was weight, because an electric truck carrying a giant battery back would theoretically sacrifice payload. Tesla has since cut about 1,000 pounds from earlier Semi iterations, and when combined with a 2,000-pound federal weight exemption for EVs, the 500-mile Long Range version achieves payload parity -- essentially maximum hauling capacity -- with comparable diesel Class 8 trucks.

What it all means for Tesla investors

While Tesla's Semi production at its Nevada factory will boast annual production capacity of 50,000 trucks, investors would be wise to largely ignore that number at the moment. If Tesla's Semi even gets its foot in the door initially, that will be a big success, but its sales volume would still probably disappoint investors.

According to the American Truck Dealers Association, the entire Class 8 market of trucks totaled 208,000 in 2025, and capturing a small market share would be a solid first step. In fact, if Tesla Semi sales approach 10,000 annually by the end of the decade, that would be a pretty big win, all things considered.

Tesla's Semi has incredible potential, is turning some skeptics into believers, and has intriguing potential for fleet operators when considering simpler long-haul highway routes for driverless vehicle technology. Ultimately, investors would be wise to temper expectations and sales figures. Tesla's Semi success shouldn't be determined by near-term volume.

Daniel Miller has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.