Bloomberg lists spot ETF decisions and their 2025 approval odds

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on crypto exchange-traded funds (spot ETFs) approvals in the second half of 2025. A Bloomberg snapshot shared by ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shows a list of digital asset funds filed and odds of approval, led by Grayscale, VanEck, Bitwise, and Canary Capital.

The tokens include Solana (SOL), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Dogecoin (DOGE), with Bloomberg placing their approval odds as from 60% to 90%.

Solana, Litecoin ETFs among favorites

According to Bloomberg’s data, Solana and Litecoin are the filings with the highest chance of getting the green light from the SEC. Several firms, including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, Franklin, and Fidelity, have filed applications involving Solana. 

Get ready for a potential Alt Coin ETF Summer with Solana likely leading the way (as well as some basket products) via @JSeyff note this morning which includes fresh odds for all the spot ETFs. pic.twitter.com/UMzih4oou7

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 10, 2025

The initial 19b-4 filing was submitted on January 24, 2025, and was officially acknowledged by the SEC. The final decision deadline is October 10, 2025. Analysts peg Solana’s odds of approval at 90%.

Litecoin ETFs, filed by Grayscale, Canary, and CoinShares, its application has a final SEC deadline of October 2, 2025, and are also given a 90% approval probability. 

XRP follows closely with an 85% chance, with multiple applicants, including Grayscale, Bitwise, WisdomTree, and CoinShare, submitting proposals on January 30, 2025.

Dogecoin, Cardano, and Polkadot also appear on the SEC’s radar. Dogecoin’s ETF filings from Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares have an October 17, 2025, deadline and are listed with an 80% chance of approval. 

Cardano and Polkadot come in at 75%, with final deadlines in October and November, respectively.

Last week, Balchunas said there was a “really good chance” that an ETF trading memecoins will launch in the future. “We’ll get a slew of active crypto ETFs,” he surmised, adding that an active memecoin-only fund could appear in 2026.

Bloomberg ETF analysts: ‘Could be a mini alt season for ETFs’

Eric Balchunas wrote in his June 10 post on X: “Get ready for a potential Alt Coin ETF Summer with Solana likely leading the way.”

His colleague, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, also mentioned that the first to get approved might be multi-coin ETFs tracking crypto indexes.

“A broad crypto index fund or two will likely be first. Could be a mini alt season for ETFs,” he reckoned.

Bloomberg’s data may have shown high approval chances for several altcoin ETFs, but the SEC recently delayed decisions on two of them: Polkadot (DOT) and Hedera (HBAR). The commission issued notices on June 11 extending its review period for both proposals.

Grayscale is seeking to convert its Polkadot Trust into a spot ETF, and Canary Capital has submitted the Hedera ETF for Nasdaq listing. Both initial filings came in February 2025. The SEC stated that it “finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to take action,” extending DOT’s deadline to November 8, 2025, and HBAR’s to November 11, 2025.

DOT and HBAR are backed by regulated futures markets, a factor that may ultimately support their approval if the SEC continues to follow the precedence set with Bitcoin and Ether.

At the Proof of Talk conference in Paris held earlier this week, 21Shares President Duncan Moir said the competition to launch new crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) is intensifying, with basket products likely to gain traction as institutional interest grows.

“It’s like you don’t know which one is going to be the winner. So you buy a basket [of them all], it’s a no-brainer,” Moir said during a panel on institutional capital inflows. 

“I think that’s going to be a big trend that we’re seeing. It’ll be interesting to see how and when people can bring basket products to market in the United States.”

Your crypto news deserves attention - KEY Difference Wire puts you on 250+ top sites