Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC slips toward key 50-day EMA ahead of FOMC Minutes
- Bitcoin falls toward the 50-day EMA at $64,370 on Wednesday after gaining near 3% over the previous two days.
- US-listed spot ETF recorded an inflow of over $189 million on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive day of gains.
- Traders focus on the FOMC Minutes release, which could provide fresh clues over the Fed's interest-rate outlook.
Bitcoin (BTC) edges lower toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $64,370 at the time of writing on Wednesday after posting a 2.9% gain over the previous two days. The recovery is supported by renewed institutional demand, with ETFs accumulating inflows so far this week.
Market participants’ attention turns to the upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes on Wednesday, which could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook amid renewed inflation concerns linked to rising energy prices.
Institutional demand returns
Institutional demand started the week on a positive note. SoSoValue data showed spot ETFs recorded an inflow of $189.30 million on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of inflows this week. If this inflow trend continues and intensifies through the week, BTC could rally.
All eyes on FOMC Minutes
Market participants now await the release of FOMC Minutes amid inflationary jitters stemming from rising Oil prices due to the Middle East crisis. Crude oil prices climbed to a nearly three-week high amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has asserted that the US is not engaged in talks with Iran and that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force. Trump also posted a map on Truth Social depicting the strategic Strait of Hormuz as new US territory.
Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the critical waterway would remain closed until the US fulfills conditions agreed to in a June memorandum of understanding that has now expired.
These developments keep the geopolitical risk premium in play and support crude oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and lifting the longer-end 30-year US bond yield to its highest level since June 2007. The FOMC Minutes later on Wednesday could offer more cues on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future policy path before traders place fresh directional bets on risky assets such as Bitcoin.
In an exclusive interview, Bitunix Analyst Dean Chen told FXStreet that today’s FOMC minutes "could be critical for Bitcoin because the key issue is not simply whether the Fed hikes or holds, but how it frames the future path of rates and financial conditions". In the past meeting, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three voting officials dissented in favor of a hike.
Chen added that, for Bitcoin, a more hawkish signal could push Treasury yields and the US Dollar higher, putting additional pressure on high-beta assets. Conversely, if the Fed Minutes signal that further tightening is unnecessary, it could support a valuation recovery in crypto. "The real question is whether today’s communication allows the market to rebuild a liquidity-driven bullish narrative for Bitcoin, rather than simply whether rates move today," Chen said.
Bitcoin technical outlook: Gravitates toward 50-day EMA
Bitcoin price trades at $64,386 on Wednesday, retaining a capped tone as it remains below the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $66,334 and $71,451, respectively.
BTC price is holding just above the 50-day EMA at $64,376, which offers immediate support. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index is around 52, while a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints at mildly improving momentum that has yet to overcome the broader overhead structure.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $65,547 (drawn from the May 26 high of $78,080 to the yearly low of $57,800 recorded on July 1), followed by the 100-day EMA at $66,334 and the horizontal cap at $66,500. A sustained break above these levels would open the way toward the 50% retracement at $67,940, with the 200-day EMA higher at $71,451 acting as a broader trend ceiling.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $64,376 provides immediate support. A daily close below this floor would expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $62,586 and the horizontal support at $62,300 as the next demand zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
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