Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC corrects as ETF outflows and continued US-Iran uncertainty weigh on sentiment

• Bitcoin price extends its correction on Tuesday after facing rejection from the key resistance zone the previous day.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $263 million on Monday, while Strategy added 3,273 BTC to its reserve.
• Uncertainty over US-Iran talks following Tehran’s peace proposal continues to dampen risk appetite, limiting BTC’s upside momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) extends its losses, trading below $77,000 on Tuesday after a mild correction the previous day. Institutional demand supports this modest pullback as spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an outflow of over $263 million on Monday. However, on the corporate side, Strategy added 3,273 BTC on the same day. Market participants remain cautious as uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks continues to cap the Crypto King’s sustainable upside move.

Institutional demand shows early cautionary signs

Institutional demand started the week on a cautious note. SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $263.18 million on Monday, breaking a nine-day streak of positive flows since mid-April. Traders should be cautious, as if this outflow trend continues and intensifies this week, BTC could see further price corrections.

However, on the corporate side, BTC demand remains robust. Michael Saylor announced on X on Monday that his firm, Strategy (MSTR), had purchased another 3,273 BTC for $255 million. The firm continues its aggressive accumulation spree, bringing the total holdings to 818,334 BTC, despite its $14.46 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings for Q1 and the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. 

Hopes for a US-Iran deal continue to wane

The US-Iran peace talks have turned out to be a short-term factor capping Bitcoin’s upside momentum, as geopolitical risks continue to dampen risk appetite across markets.

Hopes for diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war receded after US President Donald Trump canceled planned visit to Pakistan of his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Meanwhile, Tehran sent Washington a new proposal that set ‌aside discussion on the country’s nuclear program until the war ends and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved. Trump, however, is reportedly dissatisfied with the proposal as it does not address nuclear issues. 

In addition, the ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues to elevate geopolitical risks, dampening short-term risk sentiment. Risk-sensitive assets have paused their recent rallies, such as Bitcoin, which edged lower on Monday and is slipping below $77,000 on Tuesday amid rising uncertainty and traders growing cautious.

A classic bull trap or a more durable recovery?

QCP Capital reported on Monday that while BTC has pulled back slightly amid rising geopolitical tensions and cautious risk sentiment, the broader structure remains constructive.

BTC is still up more than 14% this month, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain and reinforcing its historically strong April seasonality, with strong ETF inflows and continued accumulation from Strategy.

The analyst noted, “Whether the next leg higher proves to be another classic bull trap or a more durable recovery will hinge on BTC’s ability to close above $82,000. A CME gap sits around that level, a technical feature that markets tend to revisit before establishing a clearer directional bias, and for now, conditions remain constructive.”

For now, conditions remain supportive. BTC perpetual funding rates have remained negative over the past week, suggesting positioning that could trigger a short squeeze if prices break higher. Implied volatility continues to ease, while options risk reversals are becoming less skewed to the downside. Notable flows into BTC September 2026 $90,000 calls also point to a gradual return of upside exposure and reduced downside hedging despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC faces rejection near key resistance zone

Bitcoin price is trading down near $76,800 on Tuesday after falling slightly the previous day. BTC is holding a constructive bullish bias as it stays above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered around $73,486 and $75,640, respectively, while also riding the upper boundary of the parallel channel, whose top now offers nearby support at about $75,680. 

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (drawn from the January high to the February low) at roughly $74,487 underpins the structure, and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovering near 57 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just above the zero line, momentum still hints at a moderate upside tilt rather than an exhausted rally.

On the downside, immediate support is seen just below the market at the channel top near $75,680, reinforced by the 100-day EMA at $75,640, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74,487 and the 50-day EMA near $73,486 providing a deeper cushioning zone before the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $68,950 and the lower channel boundary close to $62,950 come into play. 

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 50% retracement around $78,962, ahead of the psychological $80,000 barrier, with further hurdles at the 61.8% retracement near $83,437 and the horizontal cap around $84,410. These levels would open only if bulls can sustain a fresh breakout.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)