With 13 million bpd of oil trapped by the Strait of Hormuz, India and China turn to Russia

About 13 million barrels per day of oil are caught in the wider Strait of Hormuz crisis, pushing India and China into a scramble for replacement crude. Both are now chasing fewer barrels as disruptions in the waterway and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks tighten the market. The main target is now Russia. Saudi Arabia is the smaller fallback.

The squeeze deepened after the U.S. renewed a waiver on April 18, allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea for about a month. That eased pressure on global prices. But Washington did not relax sanctions on Iranian crude.

Nearly 98% of Iran’s crude goes to China, with smaller volumes reaching India. Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have also disrupted supplies from Gulf producers, pushing demand for Russian cargoes higher.

India and China chase Russian barrels as Hormuz flows collapse

Kpler data showed the scale of the disruption. China’s crude imports through the route fell to about 222,000 barrels per day in April from 4.45 million barrels per day before the Iran war.

India’s supplies through the same route dropped to 247,000 barrels per day so far this month from 2.8 million barrels per day in February.

For India, Russia has moved back to the center. Benjamin Tang, director and head of liquid bulk research at S&P Global Commodities at Sea, said India imported 4.57 million barrels per day of crude in March, with 2.14 million barrels per day coming from Russia.

That gave Russia a 47% share. Kpler data showed Russia’s share had been around 20% in February. Even with that jump, India’s total oil imports were still down more than 14% from prewar levels.

In February 2026, the month India and the U.S. agreed on a trade deal, Kpler showed India’s Russian crude imports had fallen to around 1.04 million barrels per day from 1.84 million barrels per day in November last year.

New Delhi’s imports from Saudi Arabia rose to 1.03 million barrels per day in February from a 2025 average of 638,387 barrels per day. So far in April, Saudi Arabia has shipped 684,190 barrels per day of crude to India.

But India is not Saudi Arabia’s first priority. Sahdev from XAnalysts said much of Saudi supply is moving to China through the Red Sea, where Riyadh has major refinery investments. Kpler showed Saudi Arabia supplied 1.35 million barrels per day to China in April, up from 1.04 million barrels per day in March, though below 1.67 million barrels per day in February.

Russian output falls as drone strikes cut supply

According to five sources and Reuters calculations, Russia cut oil output in April after Ukrainian drone attacks hit ports and refineries, and after crude flows through the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe stopped.

Sources reportedly said the drop may have been 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day from the average level seen in the first months of the year. That could be Russia’s sharpest monthly decline in six years, since the COVID period.

Oil from the Western Siberian basin is central to Russia’s $3 trillion economy. Lower output means less revenue for the world’s second biggest exporter. Still, the Iran war has lifted prices and may cushion some of the loss.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said last Thursday that high prices would help reduce the budget deficit. One source said, “Against the backdrop of ongoing attacks on Russia’s ports and refineries, it will be difficult to place oil without cutting output, especially with upcoming spring maintenance shutdowns.”

Russia made oil production data secret soon after the Ukraine war began in 2022, citing national security, and its energy ministry declined to comment.

Russian output peaked in the late 1980s, crashed after the Soviet Union broke apart in 1991, then recovered and hit a post-Soviet high in 2019 before the pandemic. 

Meanwhile, April production was down 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day from levels seen in late 2025. That monthly fall does not necessarily mean annual production will decline.

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