EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers around nine-day EMA, 177.50

• EUR/JPY may fall toward the primary support at the 12-month low of 175.70.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 41, suggesting subdued momentum.
• The initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 177.52.

EUR/JPY loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 177.50 during Asian hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which now form a layered cap above price. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 41, suggesting subdued momentum that reinforces the idea of a corrective consolidation within a broader downside phase rather than an aggressive recovery.

The EUR/JPY cross may fall toward the initial support at the 12-month low of 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025, followed by the lower boundary of its descending channel around 175.10. Further declines below this confluence support zone would open the doors for the currency cross to navigate the region around the 15-month low at 169.72.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 177.52, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near 178.80. Further resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 179.74. A move above this confluence resistance zone would cause a bullish reversal, supporting the EUR/JPY cross to explore the area around the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.

Himino flags AI-driven inflation risks, keeping Yen bulls alert

FXS Speechtracker scores this speech at 8.2, exactly in line with Himino’s historic average, underscoring a consistently firm tone as strong AI-related demand lifts capex and exports while underlying inflation nears the 2% target. The emphasis that underlying inflation is likely to align with the Bank of Japan goal, alongside rising medium- and long-term inflation expectations, reinforces a narrative that the disinflation phase is largely behind Japan.

Himino highlights that financial conditions remain accommodative, real interest rates are low, and bank lending is expanding rapidly, a combination that heightens concern about upside price risks. The warning that postponing policy changes could trigger inflation risks and damage the economy, coupled with the assertion that suitable monetary policy is needed to secure stable prices and sustainable growth, marks a clearly hawkish tilt that should support the Yen on expectations of a gradual normalization path.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)