EUR/JPY remains subdued below 187.00 as risk-off sentiment weighs on Euro
- EUR/JPY falls as the Euro weakens amid rising risk aversion over uncertainty surrounding a potential Middle East ceasefire.
- US officials say President Donald Trump has directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.
- JPY remains firm amid BoJ rate-hike expectations and speculation about intervention to limit further currency weakness.
EUR/JPY edges lower after three days of gains, trading around 186.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross declines as the Euro (EUR) struggles amid heightened risk aversion driven by uncertainty over a potential ceasefire in the Middle East.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US officials said President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The report noted that Trump chose to keep pressuring Iran’s economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from its ports. Sources added that he viewed alternative options, such as resuming bombing or disengaging from the conflict, as riskier than maintaining the blockade.
Traders turn their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, where markets expect a “hawkish hold” as policymakers weigh potential rate hikes in June or July. Analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate two 25 basis point hikes in the coming months, starting in June and followed by another in September, which would lift the deposit rate back to 2.50%.
The EUR/JPY cross remains under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) stays firm amid expectations of a near-term rate hike from the Bank of Japan, alongside speculation that authorities may intervene to curb further yen weakness.
However, the JPY has struggled to attract sustained buying interest despite the BoJ’s hawkish pause on Tuesday. Notably, three of the nine policy board members backed a rate hike, highlighting growing concern over inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to gradual policy tightening, signaling that interest rates could continue to rise as economic, price, and financial conditions evolve. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to intervene in currency markets at any time to support the Yen.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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