EUR/USD nears 1.1800 as Iran talks hopes sink, US Dollar

• EUR/USD climbs for a seventh day as Dollar weakness persists.
• Hopes for US-Iran talks and lower oil prices support the Euro.
• Traders now await Fed remarks, Beige Book and Eurozone data.

The EUR/USD rallies for the seventh straight session as the Greenback falls to a six-week low amid hopes of US-Iran talks in the week ahead, while US data remains in the back seat despite a jump in inflation. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1790, up 0.30%.

US-Iran war de-escalation underpins the Euro to 1.18

Market mood has improved as Trump hinted that talks could resume during the week, as revealed by the New York Post, and added that he doesn’t like the idea of a suspension of 20 years to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Energy prices extended their losses, a relief for countries in the Eurozone, given their overall net import status for crude and natural gas.

Would the Fed hold rates, as PPI reaches 4%?

Leaving aside geopolitical jitters on the macroeconomic front, producer prices in the US jumped to the 4% threshold, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

US PPI in March rose 4% YoY, falling short of the 4.6% forecast, up from February’s 3.4%. Core PPI for the same period steadied at 3.8% YoY, unchanged from the previous month. At the same time, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average rose to 39,250 from 26,000, further supporting the idea that the labor market remains resilient.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee stated that rate cuts would be on the table until 2027 if high oil prices from the Iran war slow the progress of inflation toward the 2% target. Meanwhile, Governor Miran expects inflation to reach the target within a year and believes that there’s no reason for higher oil prices.

Due to inflation concerns, investors are reducing bets on the Fed easing policy, and money markets now expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged this year, according to Prime Market Terminal (PMT).

ECB’s policy suits the evolving Iran conflict

On the other side of the Atlantic, ECB President Lagarde remarked that the ECB is well placed to handle developments related to Iran. She emphasized that it’s premature to disregard the shock and believes it’s too early to reach such a conclusion.

On Wednesday, the US economic schedule will feature the Fed’s Beige Book and speeches by policymakers. In the Eurozone, investors will digest February’s Industrial Production data and ECB members crossing the wires.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1793, holding a bullish near-term bias as spot extends above the cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.1673 and remains supported by the broader rising trend line from 1.1411. The break away from the prior descending resistance line off 1.1929 coincides with a firming Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.8, which suggests buyers retain control, though conditions are edging toward overbought territory.

On the topside, the next meaningful hurdle is the prior descending resistance line projected from the 1.1929 area, which caps the immediate upside. On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent breakout region near the current price zone, followed by the grouped 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs around 1.1673, while the broader bullish structure would remain intact as long as the rising trend-line support from 1.1411 holds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)