Should You Buy the Honeywell Aerospace Spinoff?

Honeywell International (NASDAQ: HON), one of the world's largest industrial conglomerates, continues to dismantle itself. Less than a year after spinning off Solstice Advanced Materials, the company is gearing up for an even larger spinoff.

Later this month, Honeywell will split into two separate companies: Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Technologies. The expectation is that each company, as a pure play in its respective industry, will receive a higher valuation than the diversified Honeywell has as a public company.

However, while spinoffs are a useful tool for maximizing shareholder value, they aren't necessarily a silver bullet. Let's take a closer look at the math behind this transaction, as well as recent price action with Honeywell shares, and determine whether it's worthwhile to buy Honeywell Aerospace, as well as when exactly to buy it.

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Honeywell, the spinoff, and the potential payoff

With the Honeywell Aerospace spinoff scheduled for June 29, management is ramping up its efforts to tout the event as highly beneficial to shareholders. As management has noted in its communications with investors, this deal entails splitting off Honeywell's faster-growing aerospace unit from its relatively slower-growing automation segment, which will take on the Honeywell Technologies name.

At the same time, the two companies intend to pursue margin-expansion efforts following the spinoff. By raising their margins, both Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Technologies intend to deliver double-digit earnings growth over the next few years. Honeywell Aerospace expects annual sales growth of 6% to 8%, while Honeywell Technologies expects sales growth of 4% to 6%.

In terms of share appreciation potential, it lies in the valuations of each unit's respective "pure-play" competitors relative to Honeywell's current valuation as a whole. GE Aerospace, one of the most widely followed aerospace stocks, trades at 46 times forward earnings.

Automation-focused industrial stocks, like Rockwell Automation, trade for over 30 times forward earnings. Meanwhile, Honeywell, even as its shares rally ahead of the merger, trades for only 21.6 times forward earnings. Even if the two companies experience partial expansion toward similar multiples, the resulting gains could be substantial, especially if the aforementioned margin-expansion efforts take hold.

There's an opportunity on both sides

The mechanics of the spinoff are as follows. Shareholders of record as of June 15 will receive shares in Honeywell Aerospace on a pro rata basis on June 29, receiving one share for every two shares held in Honeywell. The remaining Honeywell entity will then execute a 1-for-2 reverse stock split effective June 29.

It's unclear how exactly shares will trade after the spinoff. Given how "hot" the aerospace sector is at present, Honeywell Aerospace could go on a tear. However, the "less glamorous" Honeywell Technologies could pull back, as can happen when a company spins off or splits off a faster-growing business from a slower-growing one.

Then again, a post-spinoff sell-off could create a new opportunity. If investors bail on Honeywell Technologies, it could become oversold, offering a very opportune entry point from a value perspective.

With this in mind, existing Honeywell investors may want to hold onto their positions in both companies. If you've yet to buy, however, you may want to consider Honeywell Aerospace for its growth potential, while keeping an eye on Honeywell Technologies for its rerating potential following an initial period of weakness.

Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends GE Aerospace and Honeywell International. The Motley Fool recommends Rockwell Automation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.