Trump’s Iran Deal Sends Stocks to Records, Then the Fed Speaks and Bitcoin Slides

Trump’s US-Iran peace agreement set off a chain reaction across global markets this week: oil is down over 12%, the Dow Jones hit a record high, Europe’s STOXX 600 notched an all-time high, and Bitcoin briefly crossed $67,000. Then Kevin Warsh delivered his first Federal Reserve decision, and crypto gave back some of the gains.

The deal, announced June 14, commits both sides to an immediate ceasefire, the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows. A formal signing ceremony takes place in Switzerland on June 19.

Oil Falls 12% and Records Tumble Across Global Markets

Oil fell from around $87 to around $76 per barrel on the peace deal announcement. The Dow Jones climbed 0.64% to a new record above 52,000 on June 16. Europe’s STOXX 600 hit an all-time high of 639.20.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 4.99% on the day of the deal to close at a record 69,317, then briefly crossed 70,000 the following session for the first time in the index’s history.

The S&P 500 gained 1.6%, and the Nasdaq added 2.87% on the initial Iran deal day, though both slipped back the following session as questions grew about how quickly the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and the Federal Reserve meeting came into focus. The Dow held its gains, supported by industrials and consumer names that benefit most directly from lower energy costs.

Bitcoin Touches $67,000 Before the Fed Pulls It Back

The crypto market added 3.6% at the peak of the Iran deal rally, bringing its total market cap to $2.3 trillion. Bitcoin crossed $67,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85.8 million in inflows, confirming that institutional demand returned alongside the broader risk-on move.

The rally followed the same logic as equities: falling oil eases inflation and opens the door to rate cuts. Bitcoin, trading as a macro asset, followed that script. Then Warsh closed the door. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% but stripped the easing bias from its statement, and the dot plot dropped its last projected rate cut.

Cuts in 2026 are no longer the base case. Bitcoin slipped to $65,643. Ethereum trades at $1,791, XRP at $1.22, and Solana at $73.56.

The peace deal’s inflation relief still needs to land in actual CPI data before the Fed will act on it. The Strait reopens formally on June 19. How quickly cheaper oil feeds through to consumer prices will determine whether this rally has a second leg.