Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: As monthly close draws near, significance of $43,750 grows

• Bitcoin price is nurturing a recovery rally after a 20% slump from the January 11 high of $48,969.
• BTC could climb 5% into protective custody of the ascending parallel channel as a buy signal beckons.
• Invalidation of the bullish outlook will occur upon a weekly candlestick close below $40,726.

Bitcoin (BTC) price broke consolidation on the weekly time frame on Friday, but the daily time frame shows a steep downtrend. However, recovery efforts appear underway after investment firm JPMorgan said profit-taking on GBTC has largely concluded.

Also Read: Bitcoin price downtrend likely capped, JPMorgan says, as profit-taking on GBTC largely concludes

Grayscale GBTC redemptions is most overblown narrative 

Bitcoin (BTC) price downtrend has been heavily associated with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) redemptions. Before the GBTC was converted into an ETF on January 11, it was one of the few ways for US-based investors to gain exposure to BTC without owning the underlying cryptocurrency.

However, following landmark approval on January 10, investors seized the opportunity to redeem their GBTC, taking profits on their trades. This meant money leaving the crypto market, hence the downward pressure on Bitcoin price. Many macro bears eye a $35,000 target for Bitcoin price or even lower.

On the flip side, there are other entities committed to accumulating with no signs of slowing. This highlights an important concern with the macro or long-term bearish forecasts making the rounds. It shows that in most instances, major market movements follow the whim of a few large players who cannot be predicted.

With the landmark approval of spot BTC ETFs, which has brought TC to Wall Street, the chances of large new entities suddenly entering the market has changed entirely. The ETFs improve the accessibility, visibility and legitimacy of Bitcoin for the more conservative players such as funds and governments. 

In most cases, this could be what is needed for some market players to add BTC to their balance sheet for the first time. This explains why despite the negative price movement, Bitcoin held in addresses with over 1,000 BTC has reached a new yearly high.

Read: Grayscale Dumps BTC Explained: Understanding short-term bearish but mid and long term bullish spot ETFs

Bitcoin price fate hangs on monthly close and critical levels of $43,750 and $42,726

This weekend is important, as it ushers in the last week of the month. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is coming up to $43,750, which is a massive level from a trend point of view, followed by $48,000.

If Bitcoin price is able to flip the $43,750 level into support, it would signify a trend reclaimed on the weekly timeframe, shoving BTC back into the confines of the ascending channel. This, coupled with a bullish weekly candle, would likely set us up to smoke $48,000 and then see new highs.

BTC/USDT

Conversely, if Bitcoin price fails to breach the $43,750 blockade, or records a weekly candlestick close below the $40,726 support, it could solidify the trend shift on the weekly time frame, ushering in an ugly weekly candle that would typically set precedence for a high time frame reversal.

Also Read: Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC defies respectable correction, restores above $40,000