Risky trades, cautious market optimism return as Binance futures reclaims 2023 highs

Binance futures trading activity shifted again, as the ratio of derivative to spot trading reached the highest level since 2023. The increased derivative trading may be an early indicator of improving risk-taking. 

Binance futures activity climbed to an 18-month peak against spot trading. Spot activity started its rally in October, trying to replace some of the erased open interest. Now, it’s derivative trading that’s making a run, signaling a taste for risk-taking. 

The ratio stands at 5.1 points, the highest level since mid-2023. The metric reached a local low of 3.28 points in November 2025, reflecting the effect of the October liquidations. 

Currently, the futures market carries more than five times the trading volume of the exchange. Usually, the expansion of this metric coincides with periods of market recovery. While BTC and altcoin open interest remains subdued, Binance is showing it remains a location to spot the trends the earliest. 

Futures activity still grows faster than spot trading

Activity on Binance also reflected the general trend of increased perpetual futures trading. Despite Binance’s decline, the market still shows a structural shift to higher risk-taking. Derivatives volumes climbed to $25T in 2025, while spot volume was at $6.99T for the past year. 

In general, derivative trading has more robust growth, while spot volume remained flat in 2024 and 2025, based on Cryptoquant data. 

Derivative trading has not fully recovered since October 2025, with open interest for BTC still at $21B. Open interest has not recovered to previous levels over the past six months and may take longer before traders take on more confident long positions. 

The increased derivative positions may increase BTC volatility in the coming months if the trend persists. Large liquidations can raise overall volatility and challenge the readiness of investors to absorb losses.

BTC supply on Binance contracted in March

While Binance is widely used for whale BTC trades, moving coins to the exchange still contains risk. Currently, BTC is also growing scarcer on the exchange. 

The Binance scarcity index rose to 5.10 points, the highest level since October 2025. The index shift is also a sign of market recovery, as deposits have slowed down, while traders shifted to futures, not requiring direct BTC holdings. 

The scarcity index shifts often during turbulent market times, showing investor and holder behavior can turn on a dime. 

BTC hovers just below $70,000, still awaiting a clearer signal to extend its gains. However, in the past week, the crypto fear and greed index recovered to 28 points, leaving the “extreme fear” territory. BTC exited its longest stint at that sentiment level since the 2022 bull market and the crash of FTX.

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