China skips U.S. soybeans to start season, reviving trade war tactic

China has not booked a single shipment of U.S. soybeans since the new export season began, breaking a buying pattern that’s held firm since at least 1999. This is not some random slowdown, though; it’s a repeat of a trade war tactic first used under Donald Trump.

As of September 11, nearly two weeks into the season, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed zero sales logged by China, the top soybean importer on the planet. Last year alone, over $12 billion worth of U.S. soybeans went to China, representing more than half of the total U.S. soy export value.

The timing isn’t subtle. President Xi Jinping is scheduled to speak with Trump on Friday. Talks are heating up again over U.S. restrictions on semiconductors and rare earth exports. Just before the call, China announced that Nvidia had violated anti-monopoly laws, adding to the pile of unresolved tensions.

China freezes U.S. soy purchases and stockpiles from Brazil

And that go-ahead hasn’t come. So importers are skipping the U.S. and doubling down on Brazil. Crushers, feed producers, and pig farms across China have bought enough soy to last them through the rest of the year.

Several of them have even doubled their inventories. The government’s own strategic reserves are stacked as well. One purchasing manager said he’s only covered through next month but isn’t rushing to make new orders.

A manager at a large crushing facility said that an unexpected wave of U.S. beans would crash soymeal prices in local markets. Both of them requested anonymity because they’re not authorized to talk to the media.

Normally, China turns to U.S. soybeans between October and February, right before South America’s harvest hits. Buyers typically make their deals weeks in advance. By now, a few million tons would already be locked in. But not this time. People familiar with the matter said importers are delaying purchases into the first quarter of 2026.

The freeze extends past soybeans. China has also dialed down new purchases of American corn, wheat, and sorghum, while continuing to buy from Brazil, Canada, and Australia. Although total grain imports are falling due to economic pressure, this broader pivot is part of a longer-term plan: shrink dependency on U.S. agriculture.

Farmers push Trump for relief while China eyes oil, Android

American farmers, meanwhile, are running out of patience. Prices are low despite strong harvests, and growers, especially those who backed Trump in the last two elections, are calling this a “trade and financial precipice.” They’ve urged the White House to cut a new deal that removes tariffs and restores Chinese demand.

Andy Rothman, CEO of Sinology LLC and a former U.S. diplomat, said agriculture is expected to be high on the agenda when Trump and Xi speak. Trump has already asked China to quadruple soybean orders. Rothman said a serious breakthrough isn’t likely on a phone call but could happen later when both leaders meet in person.

There have been a few signs of China trying to cool tensions. It resumed U.S. oil purchases after a six-month break. It’s also dropping an antitrust investigation into Google’s Android platform, as reported by the Financial Times. But that hasn’t extended to agriculture. Not yet.

Beijing’s soybean strategy isn’t risk-free. Brazilian prices have surged this year. If that harvest runs into trouble, China might have to burn through its reserves earlier than planned. And if a trade deal suddenly forces U.S. imports into the mix, local soymeal prices could tank, wrecking months of inventory planning and hedging.

Even said that while the U.S. is still one of the most efficient and cheapest soybean suppliers, China is choosing to pay a premium to avoid it. The longer it holds off, the more expensive that choice becomes. But the decision is clearly political. Not logistical. Not economic.

Back during the first trade war, even when tariffs were in place, China allowed limited imports of American farm goods under government exemptions. So far, there’s been no such leeway this time around.

“If a deal is struck, there will definitely be some level of demand for U.S. soybeans from Chinese buyers,” Even said. “The issue is the trade war — not a total lack of demand.”

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