Kalshi’s global prediction market share is at 62%

The prediction platform Kalshi announced that its share of the global prediction market has soared to 62.2%, a huge leap from last year’s 3.1%. The company, however, still operates exclusively in the U.S. market.

According to the Block Data Dashboard, the company has already seen $1.3 billion in monthly trading volume, outpacing rival Polymarket, which stands at $773 million. The last time the prediction platform saw monthly volume topping $1 billion was in November 2024, amid U.S. elections.

Kalshi is currently facing state lawsuits

Kalshi now takes roughly two-thirds of the global prediction market volume, with 37% going to Polymarket and whatever is left picked up by Limitless and Myriad. Its trading particularly grew in August, partly driven by the NFL season kickoff and its enhanced focus on sports markets.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, in his statement on the platform’s market share, said, “It’s remarkable to see how fast the platform is growing.” Still, it faces multiple lawsuits accusing it of operating as an unregistered sports betting platform. Authorities in Maryland, Nevada, and New Jersey have all ordered it to stop operations, arguing its markets qualify as sports betting. The cases are now in federal court, with early rulings issued, but final judgments are still pending.

Massachusetts took an even tougher stance last week, suing the platform and branding its sports contracts illegal and unsafe sports wagering. The state’s 43-page filing asks the court to block local users from participating, similar to the limitations imposed on Coinbase’s staking programs in some states. Andrea Campbell, the state’s attorney general, claimed that the prediction platform effectively runs a sportsbook without following the licensing and regulatory framework required in Massachusetts.

Kalshi, however, pushed back on the allegations, stating, “Kalshi offers its users a fair, transparent, federally-regulated, and nationwide marketplace. Rather than engage in dialogue with Kalshi as many other states have done, Massachusetts is trying to block Kalshi’s innovations by relying on outdated laws and ideas.”

Bettors are also leaning toward predictions unrelated to sports

So far, Polymarket and Klshi remain the go-to platforms for users betting on real-world events, though the two operate under very different models. Polymarket is a decentralized platform focused on crypto and working to return to the U.S. market through its QCEX acquisition. Kalshi, by contrast, operates as a licensed U.S. exchange and has recently been deepening its ties to the crypto ecosystem by adding support for chains. Kalshi, in partnership with Solana and Base, launched the KalshiEco hub to drive prediction market innovation.

The prediction market platform announced the new initiative through its social media channels. The hub is a part of its move to develop prediction market infrastructure based on blockchain, in conjunction with the Solana network and Base, a layer-2 solution by Coinbase.

Analysts at Bernstein see prediction platforms as the next big interface where crypto, AI, and news converge. Sports betting is already a multibillion-dollar industry in the U.S., but the action goes far beyond the playing field. Users are now betting on everything from corporate earnings and key economic announcements to crypto prices. Bernstein even pointed out that more than $200 million on Polymarket and $85 million on Kalshi were traded around the Fed’s 25-bps rate cut.

Recent reports indicate that investors may soon buy into both firms. Polymarket is considering a new funding round at a $9–$10 billion valuation, and Kalshi is reportedly close to securing financing that would value it at $5 billion.

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