DXY: Sell-off finds breather for bow – OCBC

Better than expected US payrolls report last Friday and optimism over US-China talks (later today) supported equity risk sentiments in Asia today. DXY was last around 99 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum and RSI are not showing a clear indication

"On FX, the typical risk-on FX including AUD and NZD were better bid while AxJs traded mixed. The ~10% USD sell-off since the start of this year also showed some signs of tentative breather. In particular, XAU/XAG cross fell sharply as US-China trade talks helped to partially reduce tariff uncertainty. Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear indication. Support at 98.35, 97.90 (2025 low). Resistance at 99.80 (21 DMA), 100.20 (50 DMA)."

"The more upbeat US payrolls report may potentially be a trigger for some USD short covering ahead of CPI, PPI reports (Wednesday, Thursday, respectively) and FOMC event risk next week. Later today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade rep Jamieson Greer will meet the Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng for a second round of talks in London."

"Over the weekend, China approved some applications for rare-earth exports after Trump said that President Xi has agreed to restart the flow of minerals and magnets using the materials. It was also reported that Trump told Xi that Chinese students are welcome to study in the US. We continue to watch how developments pan out and if this round leads closer to a formalised agreement before the truce expires on 12 August."