GBP/USD pulls back after multi-month high – BBH

GBP/USD slipped from recent highs as UK retail price data confirmed ongoing deflation in shop prices, despite a pickup in food inflation. With services inflation easing and economic risks mounting, the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bps next week, with markets anticipating a full percentage point of easing over the coming year, BBH FX analysts report.

UK shop prices still in deflation despite food price rise

"GBP/USD retreated from yesterday’s multi-month high at 1.3444. UK retail outlet price pressure still in deflation. The BRC shop price index fell -0.1% y/y in April (consensus: -0.2%) vs. -0.4% in March. The breakdown showed food price inflation quickening while the decline in non-food prices eased."

"The Bank of England (BOE) has room to resume easing policy next month because downside risk to the UK economy is growing and services inflation is cooling. Markets have fully priced-in a 25bps rate cut at the next May 8 meeting and 100bps of total easing over the next 12 months."