US: The outlook is improving, but some risks remain – National Bank of Canada

Recent weeks have been punctuated by a number of positive developments for the U.S. economy, the first of which was the significant upward revision to historical data on household disposable income. However, this was partially offset by weaker recent momentum, NBC’s Jocelyn Paquet notes.

Fed to continue cutting its key rate at a gradual pace

“In reality, however, the future path of household income will depend first and foremost on the evolution of the labour market. Which brings us to the second piece of good news of recent weeks: September's solid employment figures.”

“As for the third piece of good news, the Federal Reserve has not only decided to begin its cycle of monetary easing with a jumbo 50 basis point cut, but has also underlined its willingness to cut benchmark rates further in the months ahead, if the latest edition of its dot plot is anything to go by.”

“Assuming that inflation remains under control and that the U.S. elections do not cause too much disruption, we expect the Fed to continue cutting its key rate at a gradual pace over the coming months. This will probably not prevent growth from slowing significantly by the middle of next year, although we do not expect the economy to contract. Following this scenario, we anticipate growth of 2.6% and 1.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This is better than the figures of 2.5% and 0.9% we presented last month.”