CAD holds broadening range around 1.44 – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  

A potential reversal signal on the cart

“Spot has slipped into a sideways consolidation range after the elevated volatility in spot at the start of the week. Those swings have perhaps discouraged markets from leaning much harder on the CAD for now—at least until there is more clarity on tariff threats. Canada’s November Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.2% in the month. That’s a bit better than the flat preliminary read for November sales Statcan provided with the October data.”

“While USD/CAD is essentially moving sideways, spot is carving out a broadening sideways range around 1.44 after its late 2024 rally. This type of pattern is usually associated with heightened market volatility, participation and emotion and typically develop around major market tops. That shoe seems to fit here.”

“Besides that, spot’s break under three month trend support and price action that is shaping up negatively for the USD on the weekly chart add to some fairly clear USD-negative developments on the charts. Support is 1.4260/80. Resistance is 1.4480/00.”