USD steadies, undertone remains weak – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is consolidating. The major currencies are trading mixed overall as markets steady and take stock of developments after yesterday’s steep US equity declines. Asian and European stocks are mixed to slightly softer and US equity futures are in the green, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD steadies, trades mixed on majors

"Treasurys remain soft and are underperforming European government bonds by 2-3bps while gold touched another new high just above $3500. The USD sell-off has come a long way in a relatively short space of time which may allow for some short-term stabilization in the bear trend. But USD-negative drivers—concerns about Fed independence, no obvious tariff off ramp and weakening US economic prospects—may not be resolved soon enough to save the USD."

"President Trump continues to talk positively about trade talks and how close some deals are to getting over the line. But reports have emerged from the US/Japan discussions which suggest that Japanese negotiators are frustrated by US counterparts constantly moving the goalposts, delaying progress. Recall that President Trump reportedly wants to be 'personally' involved in all trade negotiations. A quick resolution to the tariff uncertainty seems unlikely at this point."

"While the USD looks a little steadier so far today, note that that USD/JPY traded briefly below 140 amid reports that the BoJ sees no need to alter its basic rate stance (of gradual rate hikes). The 139/140 zone represents major technical support for the USD and a sustained push below this range will, we think, signal a further and significant drop in the USD is unfolding. There are a number of Fed speakers on tap today and it’s hard not to believe that the issue of Fed independence will not come up at some point in the discussions."