US Dollar Index surges to near 110.00 due to rising odds of Fed maintaining rates
- The US Dollar Index climbs as the latest employment report reinforces the Fed's decision to keep rates steady in January.
- Higher yields on US Treasury bonds are contributing support for the US Dollar.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 256K in December, exceeding expected 160K and November’s figure of 212K.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s (USD) performance against six major currencies, reached 109.98, the highest level since November 2022, during the Asian hours on Monday. The Greenback strengthened as the robust US labor market data for December will likely reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance to keep interest rates steady in January.
Additionally, Friday's strong US jobs data led to a surge in US yields, with the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields standing at 4.38% and 4.76%, respectively, at the time of writing. Higher yields are contributing support for the US Dollar.
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on Friday, reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 256K in December, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160K and surpassing the revised November figure of 212K (previously reported as 227K). Moreover, the US Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. However, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, dipped slightly to 3.9% from 4% in the prior reading.
The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes indicated that policymakers agree that the process could take longer than previously anticipated due to recent hotter-than-expected readings on inflation and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy under President-elect Trump’s administration.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem suggested that greater caution is warranted in reducing interest rates. Musalem added that the risk that inflation might get stuck between 2.5% and 3% had increased by the time of last month’s meeting, per Reuters.
Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman added her voice to a chorus of Fed speakers last week as policymakers work double-duty to try and smooth over market reactions to a much tighter pace of rate cuts in 2025 than many market participants had previously anticipated.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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