USD: A Republican clean sweep to fuel dollar strength, higher yields – MUFG

Former President Donald Trump is on his way to the White House again with remaining votes in Pennsylvania not enough to lead to Harris taking a state that is looking essential for a road to the White House for the Democrats. With Pennsylvania lost Associated Press has just called the election for Trump, MUFG’s FX analysts note.

Trump wins with FX reaction as expected so far

“EUR/USD is now 1.9% lower and we see scope for this drop to extend further lower from here. If anything this election result is looking closer to a landslide relative to how close this election was anticipated to be. The figures look to be showing Trump winning over 300 electoral college votes that will be a huge endorsement of the policies he has been campaigning on. Trump won 304 electoral college votes in 2016 but a key difference in 2024 is that Trump is on track to win the popular vote which will reinforce Trump’s determination to implement the policies he campaigned on.”

“We are reportedly going to hear from Tump soon which may come prior to an official call on his victory but that won’t matter on this occasion. Harris has indicated she will not speak to the nation until tomorrow when she will of course be conceding defeat. We indicated in our FX Outlook in October and November that a Trump victory would lead to a potential 7-8% stronger US dollar relative to the forecasts if Harris won. That implied EUR/USD dropping below the 1.0500-level (to around 1.0300-1.0400) by the end of this year.”

“We also suggested a possible initial gain for the dollar over the first 24hrs of 2-3% and the DXY as of now is up close to 1.9%. What kind of speech Trump gives when he speaks this evening may provide some sign of initial policy focus but there is no reason not to believe that he will focus on tax cutting policies (if the Republicans win the House); trade tariffs and deportations. All inflationary and all therefore likely to lift yields and the US dollar.”