United States Dollar Index falls to near 101.00 after US-Iran strike halt
- US Dollar Index declines as easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand.
- Despite a brief US-Iran pause, markets fear supply disruptions after Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities.
- The Fed will likely hold rates steady Wednesday before September hikes, though some anticipate a surprise move this week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after posting minor losses in the previous trading day, trading around 101.20 during the Asian session on Monday.
The Greenback falls sharply as geopolitical tensions eased following a weekend pause in military hostilities between the US and Iran, offering a reprieve after 13 days of escalating conflict. However, market participants remain cautious about potential supply disruptions after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities along the Red Sea.
Reports suggest the US halted strikes amid growing concerns over depleting interceptor supplies and a shrinking list of remaining targets within Iran. Additionally, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly cautioned President Trump on Friday that continuing the military campaign would severely strain critical munitions reserves.
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday before resuming rate hikes in September. However, a minority of market participants still anticipate a surprise move at this week's meeting. Moving forward, investors are closely watching upcoming economic indicators, including advance Q2 GDP data, PCE inflation figures, and earnings reports from major US corporations, for further insight into the underlying strength of the economy.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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