US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Snaps three-day losing streak amid caution ahead of US NFP data
- The US Dollar recovers after a three-day losing streak to near 101.40.
- Investors shift focus to the US NFP data, which will be released on Thursday.
- The Fed is highly expected to hike interest rates at least once this year.
The US Dollar (USD) rebounds after a three-day losing streak, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading 0.3% higher to near 101.40.
The Greenback bounces back as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.27% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.31% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.22% | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.22% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.26% | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.25% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.19% | 0.10% | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | 0.18% | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.04% | -0.10% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.31% | 0.22% | 0.25% | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | -0.27% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Investors will closely track the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The official employment report is expected to show that the economy created 110K fresh jobs, lower than 172K in May. The Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.3%.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see an almost 80% chance that the central bank will deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The data is expected to show that employers posted 7.3 million fresh jobs, lower than 7.618 million in April.
US Dollar Index technical analysis
The Dollar Index Spot trades higher at around 101.41 at press time. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 100.56, keeping the short-term trend supported after the recent push higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.83 sits just below overbought territory, suggesting strong but potentially stretched upside momentum as the index consolidates near recent highs.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 100.56, which guards the latest breakout zone and reinforces the constructive bias while price remains above it. Looking up, the 12 May 2025 high at around 102.00 is the key resistance zone; above that it could rise towards 103.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Artigos Recomendados
