US Dollar: Long-end selloff and Fed focus – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a sharp bear steepening in US yields, with 30-year rates holding above 5% for four consecutive days for the first time since 2007. Markets now price in just over one additional Fed hike between July 2026 and June 2027. Attention turns to demand at current yield levels, including the 20-year auction and upcoming Fed minutes.

Long-end yields test demand this week

"The curve sharply bear steepened alongside oil on Friday in a global bond sell off, with 30y rates continuing to trade about 5%, the first time trading above the level for four consecutive days since July 2007."

"Markets began to price in over a hike in the cycle, with 32bp priced in between July 2026 and June 2027."

"Next week, markets will be focused on demand for rates at current levels."

"The 20y bond auction on Wednesday will grab attention with focus on the long-end after Friday's sell off."

"TIC flows will be released on Monday, which will help to gauge foreign demand for the month of March. "

"It will be a light data week, with Fed minutes grabbing the majority of the attention on Wednesday, particularly with three hawkish dissents on language at the meeting."

"In addition to minutes, Waller, Paulson and Barr are scheduled to speak."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)