Oil market in wait-and-see mode – Commerzbank

Oil prices have largely remained unchanged in recent days, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

US inventory report shows a sharp decline in crude Oil stocks

"Ultimately, it is now a matter of waiting for possible major changes in (US) sanctions and tariff policy. Meanwhile, India's Oil minister sought to reassure the market, saying that India could also source Oil from sources other than Russia in the event of secondary sanctions, especially as he sees supply from Iran and Venezuela increasing. However, this would be neither easy nor painless: India, which actually imported very little crude Oil from Russia before the start of the war in Ukraine, now purchases an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day."

"In addition, almost all other buyers would probably have to look for new sources of supply at the same time. Russia still supplies the market with around 7.2 million barrels of crude Oil and Oil products every day. But market participants still seem to believe that the end of the 50-day deadline is a long way off, especially as they are confident that even this threat from US President Trump will be implemented in a watered-down form at most."

"In this environment, news from the second tier could carry more weight. However, the US inventory report, which showed a surprisingly sharp decline in already low crude Oil stocks but at the same time reported increased stocks of gasoline and distillates in the US, did not provide any clear impetus in either direction."