WTI corrects to near $97.20 amid oil demand concerns, Trump-Xi meeting in focus
- The Oil price retraces to near $97.90 amid rising energy demand concerns due to accelerating US inflation.
- The US-Iran deadlock regarding the permanent resolution of the war boosted oil prices in the last two trading days.
- US President Trump said that he doesn’t need any help to get a deal with Iran.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is down 1.5% to near $97.20 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Oil price corrects after rising almost 8.5% in the last two trading days, as hot United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April has raised concerns over the oil demand outlook.
The data on Tuesday showed that the US headline inflation arrived higher at 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) against estimates of 3.7% and the previous reading of 3.3%. The US core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – grew at a stronger pace of 2.8% YoY against 2.7% estimates and the former release of 2.6%.
Theoretically, accelerating inflationary pressures encourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to hold interest rates steady for longer or raise them. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year have increased to 33.4% from 23.5% before the US CPI data release. Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for the oil price.
In the last two trading days, the Oil price gained sharply as US-Iran negotiations failed to get a breakthrough and prompted fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump first called Iran’s counterproposal “totally unacceptable”, and then a “stupid proposal”, and expressed confidence that Washington doesn’t need China to make a deal with Iran.
“I don’t think we need any help with Iran. We’ll win it one way or the other, peacefully or otherwise," Trump said on Tuesday when asked if he would discuss the Iran war with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the May 13-15 visit to Beijing.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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