Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD falls below $5,050 as traders await US jobs data
- Gold price falls to around $5,035 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Risk-on sentiment weighs on the Gold price, but strong demand from major central banks might cap its downside.
- The delayed US January employment report will be in the spotlight on Wednesday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers near $5,035 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges lower amid improved risk sentiment and some profit-taking. Traders brace for key US economic data later this week, including delayed employment and inflation reports.
The yellow metal retreats after rising over the previous two days, as traders returned to equities on improved risk sentiment. The S&P 500 extends the rally to near its all-time highs following a volatile week. Additionally, hopes for the United States (US)-Iran negotiations could undermine a traditional asset such as Gold. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian described the Friday nuclear talks with the US as “a step forward,” even as he pushed back against any attempts at intimidation.
The potential downside for gold might be limited due to signs of strong demand. Data over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) extended its gold buying reserve for a 15th straight month in January. The Chinese central bank’s gold holdings climbed to 74.19 million fine troy ounces by the end of January, up from 74.15 million the previous month.
All eyes will be on the US January jobs data on Wednesday, as it could offer more clarity on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy direction. The US economy is expected to see 70,000 jobs added in January, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to hold at 4.4%. On Friday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be in the spotlight. Any signs of weakening in the US labor market or easing inflation could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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