CHF: Are negative interest rates coming back? – Commerzbank

Fonte Fxstreet

One of the most exciting G10 currencies at the moment is probably the Swiss Franc (CHF). This should not come as a complete surprise, because even though EUR/CHF has risen by one Rappen in recent days, the Swiss franc remains the clear winner of the last three weeks since 'Liberation Day' - after all, the franc has appreciated by more than 7% against the US dollar this month. Against the G10 average, it is still up close to 4%, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

SNB’s FX intervention dilemma persists

"The problem is that, despite its willingness to do so, it hardly intervened at all last year. In total, it bought just around 1 billion CHF in foreign currencies last year, compared with more than 20 billion CHF in foreign currency sales in the last quarter of 2023 alone. The SNB probably wants to avoid inflating its balance sheet too much. Foreign exchange reserves also carry risks, and given the current market volatility, I can understand any SNB trader who does not want to have more bonds on the balance sheet than necessary. Moreover, the SNB would run the risk of attracting too much attention from Donald Trump if it intervened more. Not a very desirable scenario."

"It could cut its key rate further. But even here there is a problem: at 0.25%, the SNB has already used most of its ammunition for rate cuts. Of course, it could repeat the negative interest rate experiment (and the market is now pricing in negative rates again), but that is probably not a particularly desirable scenario for the SNB. Especially not if a global recession really does set in and it runs out of room to cut interest rates further. After all, the effective lower bound is likely to be around -0.75%, and other central banks, such as the ECB, are a long way from there. In the event of a global recession, the ECB is likely to cut rates more sharply - and the Swiss franc will appreciate accordingly against the euro."

"Given these bad options, the SNB is probably very happy that the franc has not appreciated further. But the fundamental problem remains. We pointed out several times last year that the SNB was in a dilemma. Since then, it has used up most of its ammunition for rate cuts, while Trump has provided another argument against more interventions. This does not necessarily mean that the SNB will not respond with negative rates or more interventions. If the appreciation accelerates, the SNB is likely to react. However, in our view, the risks are clearly pointing to a stronger Swiss franc at the moment."

Isenção de responsabilidade: Apenas para fins informativos. O desempenho passado não é indicativo de resultados futuros.
placeholder
Criptomoeda Hoje: O preço do BTC cai abaixo de $ 94K, SUI sobe enquanto Trump sugere tarifas de HollywoodA capitalização de mercado das criptomoedas ficou em US$ 3,1 trilhões na segunda-feira, caindo 3%, com saídas superiores a US$ 100 bilhões nas últimas 24 horas.
Autor  FXStreet
5 Mês 06 Dia Ter
A capitalização de mercado das criptomoedas ficou em US$ 3,1 trilhões na segunda-feira, caindo 3%, com saídas superiores a US$ 100 bilhões nas últimas 24 horas.
placeholder
O Worldcoin de Sam Altman prometeu um ID global, então por que os países estão batendo na porta?O Worldcoin de Sam Altman teve como objetivo criar um ID digital global, mas as preocupações com a privacidade levaram a proibições em vários países.
Autor  Cryptopolitan
5 Mês 07 Dia Qua
O Worldcoin de Sam Altman teve como objetivo criar um ID digital global, mas as preocupações com a privacidade levaram a proibições em vários países.
placeholder
Preço do Binance Coin supera $600 enquanto o Standard Chartered prevê um aumento de 360% até 2028O preço do Binance Coin (BNB) supera $609, com notícias otimistas sobre ETF e a previsão de $2.775 do Standard Chartered impulsionando um aumento de mais de 100% nos volumes de negociação nesta semana.
Autor  FXStreet
Ontem 03: 08
O preço do Binance Coin (BNB) supera $609, com notícias otimistas sobre ETF e a previsão de $2.775 do Standard Chartered impulsionando um aumento de mais de 100% nos volumes de negociação nesta semana.
placeholder
Stripe libera contas StableCoin em mais de 100 paísesA Stripe, a gigante dos pagamentos globais, lançou contas de Stablecoin para usuários em mais de 100 países.
Autor  Cryptopolitan
Ontem 06: 42
A Stripe, a gigante dos pagamentos globais, lançou contas de Stablecoin para usuários em mais de 100 países.
placeholder
Previsão de preço do Ripple: XRP prepara impulso de alta visando US$ 3O preço do Ripple (XRP) está ganhando impulso de alta, aumentando mais de 3% para ser negociado a US$ 2,19 no momento da redação deste artigo na quinta-feira.
Autor  FXStreet
20 horas atrás
O preço do Ripple (XRP) está ganhando impulso de alta, aumentando mais de 3% para ser negociado a US$ 2,19 no momento da redação deste artigo na quinta-feira.
goTop
quote